相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

Climate-driven power outages pose a growing threat to U.S. grid reliability, yet empirical outage studies and interdependency-based resilience analyses are rarely integrated. This paper presents a data-driven framework that integrates…

One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can…

Unprecedented winter storms that hit across Texas in February 2021 have caused at least 69 deaths and 4.5 million customer interruptions due to the wide-ranging generation capacity outage and record-breaking electricity demand. While much…

Power system blackouts are usually triggered by the initial contingency and then deteriorate as the branch outage spreads quickly. Thus, it is crucial to eliminate the propagation of cascading outages in its infancy. In this paper, a model…

The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network structure and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric networks are analyzed to estimate their…

We have studied the damage spreading (defined in the text) in the 'sandpile' model of self organised criticality. We have studied the variations of the critical time (defined in the text) and the total number of sites damaged at critical…

Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the…

This paper centers on the comparison of three different models that describe cascading failures of power systems. Specifically, these models are different in characterizing the physical properties of power networks and computing the branch…

In this paper, we propose an AC power flow based cascading failure model that explicitly considers external weather conditions, extreme temperatures in particular, and evaluates the impact of extreme temperature on the initiation and…

Modeling power-grid systems has got a major importance in present days as transformation to renewable energy sources requires the complete re-design of energy transmission. Renewable energy sources can be located quite far from their…

Shifting our electricity generation from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources introduces large fluctuations to the power system. Here, we demonstrate how increased fluctuations, reduced damping and reduced intertia may undermine the…

The topological structure of the power grid plays a key role in the reliable delivery of electricity and price settlement in the electricity market. Incorporation of new energy sources and loads into the grid over time has led to its…

This paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment model for power distribution networks with a focus on the influence of climate conditions and vegetation management on outage risks. Using a dataset comprising outage records,…

The redistribution of electrical currents in resistor networks after single-bond failures is analyzed in terms of current-redistribution factors that are shown to depend only on the topology of the network and on the values of the bond…

In the past, we have observed several large blackouts, i.e. loss of power to large areas. It has been noted by several researchers that these large blackouts are a result of a cascade of failures of various components. As a power grid is…

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…

The modeling of cascading failure in power systems is difficult because of the many different mechanisms involved; no single model captures all of these mechanisms. Understanding the relative importance of these different mechanisms is an…

Transmission line failures in power systems propagate non-locally, making the control of the resulting outages extremely difficult. In this work, we establish a mathematical theory that characterizes the patterns of line failure propagation…

We consider the tail distribution of the edge cover time of a specific non-Markov process, $\delta$ once-reinforced random walk, on finite connected graphs, whose transition probability is proportional to weights of edges. Here the weights…