相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
Dynamical systems in nature exhibit selfsimilar fractal fluctuations and the corresponding power spectra follow inverse power law form signifying long-range space-time correlations identified as self-organized criticality. The physics of…
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…
Whereas maintenance has been recognized as an important and effective means for risk management in power systems, it turns out to be intractable if cascading blackout risk is considered due to the extremely high computational complexity. In…
Inspired by reliability issues in electric transmission networks, we use a probabilistic approach to study the occurrence of large failures in a stylized cascading failure model. In this model, lines have random capacities that initially…
As an emerging metric of communication systems, Age of Information (AoI) has been derived to have a critical impact in networked control systems with unreliable information links. This work sets up a novel model of outage probability in a…
We investigate the relevance of {\sl self-organized criticality (SOC)} models in previously published empirical datasets, which includes statistical observations in astrophysics, geophysics, biophysics, sociophysics, and informatics. We…
Integrity and reliability of a national power grid system are essential to society's development and security. Among the power grid components, transmission lines are critical due to exposure and vulnerability to severe external conditions,…
Various molecular interaction networks have been claimed to follow power-law decay for their global connectivity distribution. It has been proposed that there may be underlying generative models that explain this heavy-tailed behavior by…
We focus on large blackouts in electric distribution systems caused by extreme winds. Such events have a large cost and impact on customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we formulate large event risk and show how to calculate it…
Aging in complex systems is studied via the sandpile model. Relaxation of avalanches in sandpiles is observed to depend on the time elapsed since the begining of the relaxation. Levy behavior is observed in the distribution of…
We investigate statistics of the decay process in the equal-mass three-body problem with randomized initial conditions. Contrary to earlier expectations of similarity with "radioactive decay", the lifetime distributions obtained in our…
We introduce a new microscopic model of the outages in transmission power grids. This model accounts for the automatic response of the grid to load fluctuations that take place on the scale of minutes, when the optimum power flow…
Cascading failures in power systems propagate non-locally, making the control and mitigation of outages extremely hard. In this work, we use the emerging concept of the tree partition of transmission networks to provide an analytical…
The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power…
Over the past decade, extreme weather events have significantly increased worldwide, leading to widespread power outages and blackouts. As these threats continue to challenge power distribution systems, the importance of mitigating the…
Research on the vulnerability of electric networks with a complex network approach has produced significant results in the last decade, especially for transmission networks. These studies have shown that there are causal relations between…
There is empirical evidence from a range of disciplines that as the connectivity of a network increases, we observe an increase in the average fitness of the system. But at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of…
Credibly assessing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of natural disasters is a salient concern facing researchers, government officials, and community members. Here, we explore the influence of the spatial distribution of…
Prolonged power outages debilitate the economy and threaten public health. Existing research is generally limited in its scope to a single event, an outage cause, or a region. Here, we provide one of the most comprehensive analyses of U.S.…
Renewal processes with heavy-tailed power law distributed sojourn times are commonly encountered in physical modelling and so typical fluctuations of observables of interest have been investigated in detail. To describe rare events the rate…