相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
The propagation of failures and blackouts in electric networks is a complex problem. Typical models, such as the ORNL-PSerc-Alaska (OPA), are based on a combination of fast and a slow dynamics. The first describes the cascading failures…
After decades of research, cascading blackouts remain one of the unresolved challenges in the bulk power system operations. A new perspective for measuring the susceptibility of the system to cascading failures is clearly needed. The newly…
The size distributions of power outages are shown to depend on the stress, or the proximity of the load of an electrical grid to complete breakdown. Using the data for the U.S. between 2002-2017, we show that the outage statistics are…
Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…
Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to…
Industry reliability rules increasingly require utilities to study and mitigate cascading failure risk in their system. Motivated by this, this paper describes how cascading failure risk, in terms of expected blackout size, varies with…
The electric power system is one of the cornerstones of modern society. One of its most serious malfunctions is the blackout, a catastrophic event that may disrupt a substantial portion of the system, playing havoc to human life and causing…
We consider power line outages in the transmission system of the power grid, and specifically those caused by a natural disaster or a large scale physical attack. In the transmission system, an outage of a line may lead to overload on other…
Power grids exhibit patterns of reaction to outages similar to complex networks. Blackout sequences follow power laws, as complex systems operating near a critical point. Here, the tolerance of electric power grids to both accidental and…
We consider a class of multiplicative processes which, added with stochastic reset events, give origin to stationary distributions with power-law tails -- ubiquitous in the statistics of social, economic, and ecological systems. Our main…
This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we…
We introduce a model for the dynamic self-organization of the electric grid. The model is characterized by a conserved magnitude, energy, that can travel following the links of the network to satisfy nodes' load. The load fluctuates in time…
Given increasing risk from climate-induced natural hazards, there is growing interest in the development of methods that can quantitatively measure resilience in power systems. This work quantifies resilience in electric power transmission…
Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the…
Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…
When there is a fault, the protection system automatically removes one or more transmission lines on a fast time scale of less than one minute. The outaged lines form a pattern in the transmission network. We extract these patterns from…
Despite significant anecdotal evidence regarding the vulnerability of the U.S. power infrastructure, there is a dearth of longitudinal and nation-level characterization of the spatial and temporal patterns in the frequency and extent of…
In order to identify the extent to which results from topological graph models are useful for modeling vulnerability in electricity infrastructure, we measure the susceptibility of power networks to random failures and directed attacks…
We have studied the damage spreading (defined in the text) in the 'sandpile' model of self organised criticality. We have studied the variations of the critical time (defined in the text) and the total no of sites damaged at critical time…
The size that an epidemic can reach, measured in terms of the number of fatalities, is an extremely relevant quantity. It has been recently claimed [Cirillo & Taleb, Nature Physics 2020] that the size distribution of major epidemics in…