相关论文: Why does the Standard GARCH(1,1) model work well?

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…

We consider goodness-of-fit methods for multivariate symmetric and asymmetric stable Paretian random vectors in arbitrary dimension. The methods are based on the empirical characteristic function and are implemented both in the i.i.d.…

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…

Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) arises in modeling of financial time series. FIGARCH is essentially governed by a system of nonlinear stochastic difference equations ${u_t}$ =…

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

We develop a uniform test for detecting and dating explosive behavior of a strictly stationary GARCH$(r,s)$ (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) process. Namely, we test the null hypothesis of a globally stable GARCH…

We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the…

The augmented GARCH model is a unification of numerous extensions of the popular and widely used ARCH process. It was introduced by Duan and besides ordinary (linear) GARCH processes, it contains exponential GARCH, power GARCH, threshold…

There exist very few results on mixing for non-stationary processes. However, mixing is often required in statistical inference for non-stationary processes such as time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) models. In this paper, bounds for the mixing…

We extend the general stochastic matching model on graphs introduced in (Mairesse and Moyal, 2016), to matching models on multigraphs, that is, graphs with self-loops. The evolution of the model can be described by a discrete time Markov…

Modern large-scale statistical models require to estimate thousands to millions of parameters. This is often accomplished by iterative algorithms such as gradient descent, projected gradient descent or their accelerated versions. What are…

A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…

This paper examines some probabilistic properties of the class of periodic GARCH processes (PGARCH) which feature periodicity in conditional heteroskedasticity. In these models, the parameters are allowed to switch between different…

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

In this paper we study the problem of testing the null hypothesis that errors from k independent parametrically specified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models have the same distribution versus a general…

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

In this paper we propose a recursive online algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-varying ARCH process. The estimation is done by updating the estimator at time point $t-1$ with observations about the time point $t$ to yield an…