相关论文: Why does the Standard GARCH(1,1) model work well?

Recently, matrix-valued time series data have attracted significant attention in the literature with the recognition of threshold nonlinearity representing a significant advance. However, given the fact that a matrix is a two-array…

Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

We extend the theory from Fan and Li (2001) on penalized likelihood-based estimation and model-selection to statistical and econometric models which allow for non-negativity constraints on some or all of the parameters, as well as…

We study bivariate stochastic recurrence equations (SREs) motivated by applications to GARCH(1,1) processes. If coefficient matrices of SREs have strictly positive entries, then the Kesten result applies and it gives solutions with…

Bayesian inference for fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is described. A simulation study is presented to access the…

Recurrent temporal dynamics is a phenomenon observed frequently in high-dimensional complex systems and its detection is a challenging task. Recurrence quantification analysis utilizing recurrence plots may extract such dynamics, however it…

This work aims at providing a new model for time series classification based on learning from just one example. We assume that time series can be well characterized as a parametric random process, a sort of Hidden semi-Markov Model…

Ergodicity is a fundamental issue for a stochastic process. In this paper, we refine results on ergodicity for a general type of Markov chain to a specific type or the $GI/G/1$-type Markov chain, which has many interesting and important…

We study portfolio optimization of four major cryptocurrencies. Our time series model is a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distributed residuals used to…

We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…

In multi-state life insurance, an adequate balance between analytic tractability, computational efficiency, and statistical flexibility is of great importance. This might explain the popularity of Markov chain modelling, where matrix…

Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local…

Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time…

Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a…

This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, termed GARCH-FIS, for recursive rolling multi-step forecasting of financial time series. It integrates a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity…

In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH…

This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression…

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…

In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…

This paper introduces a new kind of seasonal fractional autoregressive process (SFAR) driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The new model includes a standard seasonal AR model and fGn. {The estimation of the parameters of this new…