相关论文: Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

In this paper we propose a new lifetime model, called the odd generalized exponential linear failure rate distribution. Some statistical properties of the proposed distribution such as the moments, the quantiles, the median, and the mode…

Task replication has recently been advocated as a practical solution to reduce latencies in parallel systems. In addition to several convincing empirical studies, some others provide analytical results, yet under some strong assumptions…

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…

We propose and study numerically a stochastic cellular automaton model for the dynamics of granular materials with temporal disorder representing random variation of the diffusion probability $1-\mu (t)$ around threshold value $1-\mu_0$…

Wildfire is one of the biggest disasters that frequently occurs on the west coast of the United States. Many efforts have been made to understand the causes of the increases in wildfire intensity and frequency in recent years. In this work,…

In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…

In this paper, we obtain some additional probabilistic properties of the renewal process $\{\hat{N}_{\alpha}(t)\}_{t\ge0}$, $0<\alpha\le 1$ introduced by Beghin and Orsingher (2010). A time-changed relationship connecting…

In this paper we consider the one dimensional spring-block model describing earthquake faulting. By using geometric singular perturbation theory and the blow-up method we provide a detailed description of the periodicity of the earthquake…

The subject of switchbacks, defined either as large angular deflections or polarity reversals of the magnetic field, has generated substantial interest in the space physics community since the launch of Parker Solar Probe (PSP) in 2018.…

Two types of coseismic magnetic field events are simultaneously observed: transient offset events and magnetic field signal that occurred at the destructive, Mw6.1 LAquila earthquake (EQ) mainshock. The offset event, conventionally…

Epidemiologic studies often evaluate the association between an exposure and an event risk. When time-varying, exposure updates usually occur at discrete visits although changes are in continuous time and survival models require values to…

Power system operators need tools for rapid, real-time counterfactual assessments of grid security under fast-changing conditions. Traditional N-1 contingency analysis lacks dynamic evaluation, especially of frequency swings from common…

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

We revisit the work of Kilston and Knopoff (1983) to study the correlation of earthquakes with the main lunisolar tidal components in the limited zone of the Southern California region, with a considerably bigger amount of data. By adopting…

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…

For many diseases it is reasonable to assume that the hazard rate is not constant across time, but also that it changes in different time intervals. To capture this, we work here with a piecewise survival model. One of the major problems in…

This study revisits the modeling of seismic fragility curves by applying ordinal regression models, offering an alternative to the commonly used log-normal distribution function. It compares various ordinal regression approaches, including…

This paper examines the use of risk models to predict the timing and location of wildfires caused by electricity infrastructure. Our data include historical ignition and wire-down points triggered by grid infrastructure collected between…

Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed enough to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes…

Electric power networks are critical lifelines, and their disruption during earthquakes can lead to severe cascading failures and significantly hinder post-disaster recovery. Enhancing their seismic resilience requires identifying and…