相关论文: Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…

Construction projects frequently experience schedule delays and forecasting uncertainty due to variability in labor productivity, material availability, weather conditions, and project coordination. Conventional deterministic scheduling…

Timing observations from the Parkes 64-m radio telescope for 165 pulsars between 1990 and 2011 have been searched for period glitches. A total of 107 glitches were identified in 36 pulsars, where 61 have previously been reported and 46 are…

Accurate models of fault zone geometry are important for scientific and hazard applications. While seismicity can provide high-resolution point measurements of fault geometry, extrapolating these measurements to volumes may involve making…

We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time…

As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…

In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such…

In this work, we address the problem of identifying sparse continuous-time dynamical systems when the spacing between successive samples (the sampling period) is not constant over time. The proposed approach combines the…

Irregularly sampled multivariate event streams remain a stubbornly difficult modality for generative modeling: tokenization-based approaches break down when inter-event intervals vary by orders of magnitude, and neural temporal point…

Real-time traffic accident forecasting is increasingly important for public safety and urban management (e.g., real-time safe route planning and emergency response deployment). Previous works on accident forecasting are often performed on…

Drawdowns measuring the decline in value from the historical running maxima over a given period of time, are considered as extremal events from the standpoint of risk management. To date, research on the topic has mainly focus on the side…

Hazard models are the most commonly used tool to analyse time-to-event data. If more than one time scale is relevant for the event under study, models are required that can incorporate the dependence of a hazard along two (or more) time…

We propose a straightforward extension of our previously proposed log-periodic power law model of the ``anti-bubble'' regime of the USA market since the summer of 2000, in terms of the renormalization group framework to model critical…

A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…

Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold $m_d$) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching…

We consider a stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model driven by a periodic signal as model for the membrane potential of a pyramidal neuron. The associated five dimensional diffusion process is a time inhomogeneous highly degenerate diffusion for…

When deployed in the real world, machine learning models inevitably encounter changes in the data distribution, and certain -- but not all -- distribution shifts could result in significant performance degradation. In practice, it may make…

For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the…

Most earthquake energy release arises during fault slip many kilometers below the Earth's surface. Understanding earthquakes and their hazard requires mapping the geometry and distribution of this slip. Such finite-fault maps are typically…

The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquakes event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been…