相关论文: Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

The Parkfield M6 earthquake predicted from 1985 by the USGS to happen by 1993 happened 11 years later in 2004 instead. Till today, satisfactory answers to why this earthquake was mis-predicted have not been found. Seven months after the…

Upon employing the analysis in a new time domain, termed natural time, it has been recently demonstrated that a remarkable change of seismicity emerges before major mainshocks in California. What constitutes this change is that the…

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box…

We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a…

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

We introduce a modification of the OFC earthquake model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244 (1992)] in order to improve resemblance with the Burridge and Knopoff mechanical model and with possible laboratory experiments. A constant force continually…

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…

We show analytically that the answer to the question, "The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next ?" depends crucially on the statistics of the fluctuations in the interval times between…

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

Many complex systems, including sand-pile models, slider-block models, and earthquakes, have been discussed whether they obey the principles of self-organized criticality. Behavior of these systems can be investigated from two different…

We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…

In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…

A likely source of earthquake clustering is static stress transfer between individual events. Previous attempts to quantify the role of static stress for earthquake triggering generally considered only the stress changes caused by large…

We study the statistical properties of time distribution of seimicity in California by means of a new method of analysis, the Diffusion Entropy. We find that the distribution of time intervals between a large earthquake (the main shock of a…

The M6.0 earthquakes recurrence times, Tr, exhibit high variability from 40 to 1500 years, with the southern Corinth Rift fault segments reaching values up to 350 years and their antithetic ones ranging from 400 to 1500 years. The fault…

The statistical properties of the seismic time series data in southern California are studies. In particular, the calm time intervals, which are the time intervals between successive significant earthquakes above the fixed threshold value…

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is…

This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its JAGS implementation. The…

Time series are characterized by complex memory and/or distribution patterns. In this letter we show that models obeying to different statistics may equally reproduce some pattern of a time series. In particular we discuss the difference…

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…