相关论文: Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

The data analysis of aftershock events of L Aquila earthquake in Apennines following the main 6.3 Mw event of April 6, 2009 has been carried out by standard statistical geophysical tools. The results show the heterogeneity of seismic…

We study statistical distributions in a mechanical model for an earthquake fault introduced by Burridge and Knopoff [R. Burridge and L. Knopoff, {\sl Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.} {\bf 57}, 341 (1967)]. Our investigations on the size (moment),…

The declining synchronous inertia in power systems undergoing the energy transition increases the sensitivity of system frequency to generation and interconnector disturbances, making accurate frequency risk quantification increasingly…

Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…

By analyzing the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic catalog for different tectonic settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes --interoccurrence times-- can be described…

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…

Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem. However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors before the…

The vast majority of landslide susceptibility studies assumes the slope instability process to be time-invariant under the definition that "the past and present are keys to the future". This assumption may generally be valid. However, the…

We propose a new method to analyze seismic time series and estimate the arrival-times of seismic waves. Our approach combines two ingredients: the times series are first lifted into a high-dimensional space using time-delay embedding; the…

We compute a series of finite-source parameter inversions of the fault rupture of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake based on 1 Hz GPS records only. We confirm that some of the co-seismic slip at shallow depth (<5 km) constrained by InSAR data…

Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…

We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals $\tau$ between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold $q>0$ or below a negative threshold $q<0$ of two indices and 20 individual stocks in China's stock…

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…

Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which…

In the superparamagnetic regime, magnetic tunnel junctions switch between two resistance states due to random thermal fluctuations. The dwell time distribution in each state is exponential. We sample this distribution using a temporal…

In order to perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) based on subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurance, or a probability…

This paper extends the existing fractional Hawkes process to better model mainshock-aftershock sequences of earthquakes. The fractional Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process model with temporal decay kernel being a Mittag-Leffler…

The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…

The present study supposes a single unit and investigates cumulative damage and catastrophic failure models for the unit, in situations where the interarrival times between the shocks, and the magnitudes of the shocks, involve two different…

In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…