相关论文: Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield
Earthquake aftershock identification is closely related to the question "Are aftershocks different from the rest of earthquakes?" We give a positive answer to this question and introduce a general statistical procedure for clustering…
We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…
This paper addresses a long-standing gap in natural hazard modeling by unifying physics-based fragility functions with real-time post-disaster observations. It introduces a Bayesian framework that continuously refines regional vulnerability…
The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and…
One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…
Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before…
The statistical property of the calm times, i.e., time intervals between successive earthquakes with arbitrary values of magnitude, is studied by analyzing the seismic time series data in California and Japan. It is found that the calm…
We study a class of Markov chains that describe reversible stochastic dynamics of a large class of disordered mean field models at low temperatures. Our main purpose is to give a precise relation between the metastable time scales in the…
A comparative study is performed on volcanic seismicities at Icelandic volcano, Eyjafjallaj\"okull, and Mt. Etna in Sicily from the viewpoint of complex systems science, and the discovery of remarkable similarities between them is reported.…
Prognostic models in survival analysis are aimed at understanding the relationship between patients' covariates and the distribution of survival time. Traditionally, semi-parametric models, such as the Cox model, have been assumed. These…
This paper presents an analysis on the distribution of periods between consecutive reversals of the Earth's magnetic field. The analysis includes the randomness of polarities, whether the data corresponding to different periods belong to a…
In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the…
The optimal scaling problem for the time t(LxL) between two successive events in a seismogenic cell of size L is considered. The quantity t(LxL) is defined for a random cell of a grid covering a seismic region G. We solve that problem in…
Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…
Random walks are basic diffusion processes on networks and have applications in, for example, searching, navigation, ranking, and community detection. Recent recognition of the importance of temporal aspects on networks spurred studies of…
Sequential tropical cyclone hazards--two tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in the same region within a short time--are becoming increasingly likely. This study investigates situational preparedness dynamics for six sequential TC…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
In the pursuit of modelling a loan's probability of default (PD) over its lifetime, repeat default events are often ignored when using Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) models. Excluding such events may produce biased and inaccurate…
In this paper, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (roadway segments) can switch between these…