相关论文: Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

Earthquake-induced secondary ground failure hazards, such as liquefaction and landslides, result in catastrophic building and infrastructure damage as well as human fatalities. To facilitate emergency responses and mitigate losses, the U.S.…

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

Dam breach models are commonly used to predict outflow hydrographs of potentially failing dams and are key ingredients for evaluating flood risk. In this paper a new dam breach modeling framework is introduced that shall improve the…

Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…

Pulsar glitch is a phenomenon characterized by abrupt changes in the spin period over less than a minute. We present a comprehensive analysis of glitches in four gamma-ray pulsars by combining the timing observation data from \textit{Fermi}…

Extending the usual Ginzburg-Landau theory for the random-field Ising model, the possibility of dimensional reduction is reconsidered. A renormalization group for the probability distribution of magnetic impurities is applied. New…

We study an asymmetric version of the threshold model with anticonformity under asynchronous update mode that mimics continuous time. We study this model on a complete graph using three different approaches: mean-field approximation, Monte…

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its…

We have studied the time lags between commercial line airplane disasters and their occurrence frequency till 2002, as obtained from a freely available website. We show that the time lags seem to be well described by Poisson random events,…

In this paper, we address the controversy regarding the recent extended solar minimum as seen in helioseismic low- and intermediate-degree mode frequencies: studies from different instruments identify different epochs of seismic minima.…

Statistical properties of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes obeying the rate and state dependent friction law are studied by extensive computer simulations. The quantities computed include the…

Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…

We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions $P_{\text{data}}(r)$ of the number $r$ of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog. We find a stable power law tail $P_{\text{data}}(r)…

Geological fault systems, as the San Andreas fault (SAF) in USA, constitute typical examples of self-organizing systems in nature. In this paper, we have considered some geophysical properties of the SAF system to test the viability of the…

This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…

We have analyzed, for the first time, the time cumulant of magnitudes of an aftershock sequence since the mainshock. This comes out to be a remarkable straight line whose slope is characteristic of the fault zone. This will provide an…

Period searches in event data have traditionally used the Rayleigh statistic, $R^2$. For X-ray pulsars, the standard has been the $Z^2$ statistic, which sums over more than one harmonic. For $\gamma$-rays, the $H$-test, which optimizes the…

We analyse the compiled set of precursory data that were reported to be available in real time before the Ms 7.5 Haicheng earthquake in Feb. 1975 and the Ms 7.6-7.8 Tangshan earthquake in July 1976. We propose a robust and simple…

We provide a general model for Brownian motions on metric graphs with interactions. In a general setting, for (sticky) Brownian propagations on edges, our model provides a characterization of lifetimes and holding times on vertices in terms…

We have studied interoccurrence time distributions by analyzing the synthetic and three natural catalogs of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC), and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau…