相关论文: Limit laws for random vectors with an extreme comp…

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

We consider a multivariate heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model and analyze the large-sample behavior of its sample covariance matrix. We study the limiting behavior of its entries in the infinite-variance case and derive results for…

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…

We study the problem of testing \emph{conditional independence} for discrete distributions. Specifically, given samples from a discrete random variable $(X, Y, Z)$ on domain $[\ell_1]\times[\ell_2] \times [n]$, we want to distinguish, with…

The aim of this paper is to use non asymptotic bounds for the probability of rare events in the Sanov theorem, in order to study the asymptotics in conditional limit theorems (Gibbs conditioning principle for thin sets). Applications to…

We prove a large deviation principle for the sum of n independent heavy-tailed random variables, which are subject to a moving cut-off boundary at location n. Conditional on the sum being large at scale n, we show that a finite number of…

Fitting a graphical model to a collection of random variables given sample observations is a challenging task if the observed variables are influenced by latent variables, which can induce significant confounding statistical dependencies…

In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t) $ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional…

A random phenomenon may have two sources of random variation: an unstable identity and a set of external variation-generating factors. When only a single source is active, two mutually exclusive extreme scenarios may ensue that result in…

In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…

In this paper we revisited the classical problem of max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums in two dimensions. In opposite to the most papers in literature, we consider that there exists some interdependence between the primary random…

Large deviation theory offers a powerful and general statistical framework to study the asymptotic dynamical properties of rare events. The application of the formalism to concrete experimental situations is, however, often restricted by…

The notion of expectiles, originally introduced in the context of testing for homoscedasticity and conditional symmetry of the error distribution in linear regression, induces a law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure that has…

Weak convergence of maxima of dependent sequences of identically distributed continuous random variables is studied under normalizing sequences arising as subsequences of the normalizing sequences from an associated iid sequence. This…

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…

We consider phase-type scale mixture distributions which correspond to distributions of a product of two independent random variables: a phase-type random variable $Y$ and a nonnegative but otherwise arbitrary random variable $S$ called the…