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Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…

概率论 · 数学 2015-01-20 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

概率论 · 数学 2024-02-15 Quirin Vogel

The purpose of this paper is twofold. In one direction, we extend the spectral method for random piecewise expanding and hyperbolic dynamics developed by the first author \textit{et al}. to establish quenched versions of the large deviation…

动力系统 · 数学 2020-12-02 Davor Dragičević , Yeor Hafouta

We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…

Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

Multivariate rapid variation describes decay rates of joint light tails of a multivariate distribution. We impose a local uniformity condition to control decay variation of distribution tails along different directions, and using…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-04-30 Haijun Li

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…

概率论 · 数学 2021-05-12 Miriam Hägele , Jaakko Lehtomaa

We consider the sums $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $\xi$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the…

概率论 · 数学 2013-03-20 D. Denisov , S. Foss , D. Korshunov

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-01-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Adrian Casey , Jonathan A. Tawn

A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-03 Jennifer Wadsworth , Ryan Campbell

Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2014-12-31 Alexis Bienvenüe , Christian Y. Robert

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-07 Archil Gulisashvili , Peter Tankov

We establish the limiting spectral distribution of Kendall's correlation matrices in the moderate high-dimensional regime where the dimension grows slower than the sample size. Our framework allows observations to be independent but not…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-10 Raunak Shevade , Monika Bhattacharjee

Many structural econometric models include latent variables on whose probability distributions one may wish to place minimal restrictions. Leading examples in panel data models are individual-specific variables sometimes treated as "fixed…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-01-15 Andrew Chesher , Adam M. Rosen , Yuanqi Zhang

The key element of the approach to the theory of necessary conditions in optimal control discussed in the paper is reduction of the original constrained problem to unconstrained minimization with subsequent application of a suitable…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-06-26 A. D. Ioffe

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…

概率论 · 数学 2026-02-02 Sohail Bahmani

We study the closure properties of the class of Bivariate Regular Variation, symbolically BRV , in standard and nonstandard cases, with respect to the randomly weighted sums. However, we take into consideration a weak dependence structure…

概率论 · 数学 2025-06-24 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-01-26 Clemonell Bilayi-Biakana , Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier

The Central Limit Theorem states that, in the limit of a large number of terms, an appropriately scaled sum of independent random variables yields another random variable whose probability distribution tends to a stable distribution. The…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2024-04-08 Damián H. Zanette , Inés Samengo