相关论文: Maximum Variation of Total Risk

For a multivariate random walk with i.i.d. jumps satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a mean vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant…

This paper explores the joint behaviour of the summands of a random walk when their mean value goes to infinity as its length increases. It is proved that all the summands must share the same value, which extends previous results in the…

We study a continuous time branching process where an individual splits into two daughters with rate b and dies with rate a, starting from a single individual at t=0. We show that the model can be mapped exactly to a random walk problem…

In this paper, we give a Breiman's theorem for conditional dependent random vector, where one component has a regularly-varying-tailed distribution with the index $\alpha\ge0$ and its slowly varying function satisfies a relaxed condition,…

We consider the real part $\Re(\zeta(s))$ of the Riemann zeta-function $\zeta(s)$ in the half-plane $\Re(s) \ge 1$. We show how to compute accurately the constant $\sigma_0 = 1.19\ldots$ which is defined to be the supremum of $\sigma$ such…

In this paper, we investigate the precise local large deviation probabilities for random sums of independent real-valued random variables with a common distribution $F$, where $F(x+\Delta)=F((x, x+T])$ is an $\mathcal{O}$-regularly varying…

The aim of this short note is to present a solution to the discrete time exponential utility maximization problem in a case where the underlying asset has a multivariate normal distribution. In addition to the usual setting considered in…

We study the conditional upper bounds and extreme values of derivatives of the Riemann zeta function and Dirichlet $L$-functions near the 1-line. Let $\ell$ be a fixed natural number. We show that, if $|\sigma-1|\ll1/\log_2t$, then…

For an arbitrary diffusion process $X$ with time-homogeneous drift and variance parameters $\mu(x)$ and $\sigma^2(x)$, let $V_\varepsilon$ be $1/\varepsilon$ times the total time $X(t)$ spends in the strip…

We will provide a new type of zero-density estimate for $\zeta(s)$ when $\sigma$ is sufficiently close to $1$. In particular, we will show that $N(\sigma,T)$ can be bounded by an absolute constant when $\sigma$ is sufficiently close to the…

We present a streamlined proof of the foundational result in the theory of exponential random graph models (ERGMs) that the maximum likelihood estimate exists if and only if the target statistic lies in the relative interior of the convex…

Understanding the affective, cognitive and behavioural processes involved in risk taking is essential for treatment and for setting environmental conditions to limit damage. Using Temporal Difference Reinforcement Learning (TDRL) we…

Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…

Maximum likelihood degree of a projective variety is the number of critical points of a general likelihood function. In this note, we compute the Maximum likelihood degree of Fermat hypersurfaces. We give a formula of the Maximum likelihood…

In this article we derive the best possible upper bound for $E[\max{X_i}-\min_i{X_i}]$ under given means and variances on $n$ random variables $X_i$. The random vector $(X_1,...,X_n)$ is allowed to have any dependence structure, provided $E…

We prove new bounds for how often Dirichlet polynomials can take large values. This gives improved estimates for a Dirichlet polynomial of length $N$ taking values of size close to $N^{3/4}$, which is the critical situation for several…

We establish an exact asymptotic formula for the square variation of certain partial sum processes. Let $\{X_{i}\}$ be a sequence of independent, identically distributed mean zero random variables with finite variance $\sigma$ and…

Let p_n denote the persistence probability that the first n iterated partial sums of integrable, zero-mean, i.i.d. random variables X_k, are negative. We show that p_n is bounded above up to universal constant by the square root of the…

Continuous Time Random Maxima (CTRM) are a generalization of classical extreme value theory: Instead of observing random events at regular intervals in time, the waiting times between the events are also random variables with arbitrary…

Let $(S_0,S_1,...)$ be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of $\sigma$-algebras $H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...$, with $S_0\le0$ almost surely (a.s.) and differences $X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}$. Suppose that $X_i\le d$ and $\mathsf…