相关论文: Maximum Variation of Total Risk

We consider a discrete-time random walk on a one-dimensional lattice with space and time-dependent random jump probabilities, known as the Beta random walk. We are interested in the probability that, for a given realization of the jump…

We employ mean value estimates of Weyl sums in order to obtain discrete second moments of the Riemann Zeta-function with respect to polynomials near the vertical line $1+i\mathbb{R}$.

Let $\pi S(t)$ denote the argument of the Riemann zeta-function at the point $\frac12+it$. Assuming the Riemann Hypothesis, we sharpen the constant in the best currently known bounds for $S(t)$ and for the change of $S(t)$ in intervals. We…

The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to…

Given the discrete-time sequence of nonnegative random variables, general dependencies between the exponential convergence of the expectations, exponential convergence of the trajectories and the logarithmic growth of the corresponding…

The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As non-parametric model, it offers a very flexible way of modeling…

We compute exact asymptotic results for the probability of the occurrence of large deviations of the largest (smallest) eigenvalue of random matrices belonging to the Gaussian orthogonal, unitary and symplectic ensembles. In particular, we…

We show that the probability that a simple random walk covers a finite, bounded degree graph in linear time is exponentially small. More precisely, for every D and C, there exists a=a(D,C)>0 such that for any graph G, with n vertices and…

We study the effect of reward variance heterogeneity in the approximate top-$m$ arm identification setting. In this setting, the reward for the $i$-th arm follows a $\sigma^2_i$-sub-Gaussian distribution, and the agent needs to incorporate…

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…

The global first passage time density of a network is the probability that a random walker released at a random site arrives at an absorbing trap at time T. We find simple expressions for the mean global first passage time <T> for five…

Let \{X_1, X_2, ...\} be a sequence of positive independent and identically distributed random variables of Pareto-type with index \alpha>0 and let \{N(t); t\geq 0\} be a mixed Poisson process independent of the X_i's. For t\geq 0, define…

We study the problem of heavy-tailed mean estimation in settings where the variance of the data-generating distribution does not exist. Concretely, given a sample $\mathbf{X} = \{X_i\}_{i = 1}^n$ from a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over…

If the rounding errors are assumed to be distributed independently from the intrinsic distribution of the random variable, the sample variance $s^2$ of the rounded variable is given by the sum of the true variance $\sigma^2$ and the…

Here, we study both analytically and numerically, an integral $Z(\sigma,r)$ related to the mean value of a generalized moment of Riemann's zeta function. Analytically, we predict finite, but discontinuous values and verify the prediction…

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

We consider a random walk $(Z^{(1)}_n, ..., Z^{(K+1)}_n) \in \mathbb{Z}^{K+1}$ with the constraint that each coordinate of the walk is at distance one from the following one. In this paper, we show that this random walk is slowed down by a…

Let $F$ be a finite model of cardinality $M$ and denote by $\operatorname {conv}(F)$ its convex hull. The problem of convex aggregation is to construct a procedure having a risk as close as possible to the minimal risk over $\operatorname…

In [1], the authors consider a random walk $(Z_{n,1},\ldots,Z_{n,K+1})\in \mathbb{Z}^{K+1}$ with the constraint that each coordinate of the walk is at distance one from the following one. A functional central limit theorem for the first…