相关论文: Maximum Variation of Total Risk

Online learning has traditionally focused on the expected rewards. In this paper, a risk-averse online learning problem under the performance measure of the mean-variance of the rewards is studied. Both the bandit and full information…

Consider an insurance company exposed to a stochastic economic environment that contains two kinds of risk. The first kind is the insurance risk caused by traditional insurance claims, and the second kind is the financial risk resulting…

Suppose $X_1,X_2,...$ are i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with finite expectation, and for each $k$, $X_k$ is observed at the $k$-th arrival time $S_k$ of a Poisson process with unit rate which is independent of the sequence $\{X_k\}$.…

This paper proceeds an approximate calculation of ultimate time survival probability for bi-seasonal discrete time risk model when premium rate equals two. The same model with income rate equal to one was investigated in 2014 by Damarackas…

In this paper we consider a heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model, $X_t=\sigma_tZ_t$, $t\in\mathbb{Z}$, where the volatility sequence $(\sigma_t)$ and the i.i.d. noise sequence $(Z_t)$ are assumed independent, $(\sigma_t)$ is regularly…

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

We consider a process $X_t$, which is observed on a finite time interval $[0,T]$, at discrete times $0,\Delta_n,2\Delta_n,\ldots.$ This process is an It\^{o} semimartingale with stochastic volatility $\sigma_t^2$. Assuming that $X$ has…

In decision making under uncertainty and risk, worst-case risk assessments are often conducted using maxitive monetary risk measures. In this article, we study maxitive monetary risk measures on the space $L^0$ of all random variables…

We consider a centered random walk with finite variance and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the area under this walk remains positive up to a large time $n$. Assuming that the moment of order $2+\delta$ is…

For two independent, almost surely finite random variables, independence of their minimum (time) and the event that one of them is either greater, equal or less than the other (cause) is completely characterized. It is shown that, other…

We study the large deviation probabilities of infinite weighted sums of independent random variables that have stretched exponential tails. This generalizes Kiesel and Stadtm\"uller (2000), who study the same objects under the assumption of…

We study the support (i.e. the set of visited sites) of a t step random walk on a two-dimensional square lattice in the large t limit. A broad class of global properties M(t) of the support is considered, including, e.g., the number S(t) of…

We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a random vector based on $N$ independent, identically distributed observations. We prove the existence of an estimator that has a near-optimal error in all directions in which the variance…

In this short note, we study the derivatives of all orders for the random field $$ X_T(h) = \sum_{p \leq T} \frac{\text{Re}(U_p \, p^{-i h})}{p^{1/2}}, \quad h\in [0,1], $$ where $(U_p, \, p ~\text{primes})$ is an i.i.d. sequence of uniform…

The mean absolute deviation about the mean is an alternative to the standard deviation for measuring dispersion in a sample or in a population. For stationary, ergodic time series with a finite first moment, an asymptotic expansion for the…

Let $\Delta(x)$ denote the error term in the Dirichlet divisor problem, and $E(T)$ the error term in the asymptotic formula for the mean square of $|\zeta(1/2+it)|$. If $E^*(t) = E(t) - 2\pi\Delta^*(t/2\pi)$ with $\Delta^*(x) = -\Delta(x) +…

In this work we set up the distribution function of $\mathcal{M}:=\sup_{n\geqslant1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}{(Z_i-1)}$, where the random walk $\sum_{i=1}^{n}Z_i, n\in\mathbb{N},$ is generated by $N$ periodically occurring distributions and the…

We analyze the distance $\mathcal{R}_T(u)$ between the first and the last passage time of $\{X(t)-ct:t\in [0,T]\}$ at level $u$ in time horizon $T\in(0,\infty]$, where $X$ is a centered Gaussian process with stationary increments and…

Constructing confidence intervals that are simultaneously valid across a class of estimates is central to tasks such as multiple mean estimation, generalization guarantees, and adaptive experimental design. We frame this as an ``error…

Let $T\$ be a stopping time associated with a sequence of independent random variables $Z_{1},Z_{2},...$ . By applying a suitable change in the probability measure we present relations between the moment or probability generating functions…