English

Prophet inequalities for i.i.d. random variables with random arrival times

Probability 2010-09-08 v1

Abstract

Suppose X1,X2,...X_1,X_2,... are i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with finite expectation, and for each kk, XkX_k is observed at the kk-th arrival time SkS_k of a Poisson process with unit rate which is independent of the sequence {Xk}\{X_k\}. For t>0t>0, comparisons are made between the expected maximum M(t):=\rE[maxk1Xk\sI(Skt)]M(t):=\rE[\max_{k\geq 1} X_k \sI(S_k\leq t)] and the optimal stopping value V(t):=supτ\TT\sE[Xτ\sI(Sτt)]V(t):=\sup_{\tau\in\TT}\sE[X_\tau \sI(S_\tau\leq t)], where \TT\TT is the set of all \NN\NN-valued random variables τ\tau such that {τ=i}\{\tau=i\} is measurable with respect to the σ\sigma-algebra generated by (X1,S1),...,(Xi,Si)(X_1,S_1),...,(X_i,S_i). For instance, it is shown that M(t)/V(t)1+α0M(t)/V(t)\leq 1+\alpha_0, where α00.34149\alpha_0\doteq 0.34149 satisfies 01(yylny+α0)1dy=1\int_0^1(y-y\ln y+\alpha_0)^{-1} dy=1; and this bound is asymptotically sharp as tt\to\infty. Another result is that M(t)/V(t)<2(1et)/tM(t)/V(t)<2-(1-e^{-t})/t, and this bound is asymptotically sharp as t0t\downarrow 0. Upper bounds for the difference M(t)V(t)M(t)-V(t) are also given, under the additional assumption that the XkX_k are bounded.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.math/0611664,
  title  = {Prophet inequalities for i.i.d. random variables with random arrival times},
  author = {Pieter C. Allaart},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0611664},
  year   = {2010}
}

Comments

16 pages with 1 figure; submitted to Sequential Analysis in shortened form

R2 v1 2026-07-22T17:46:43.821Z