English

A sharp bound for winning within a proportion of the maximum of a sequence

Probability 2017-09-11 v1

Abstract

This note considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent and identically distributed. Consider X1,,XnX_1,\dots,X_n to be an independent sequence of random variables, let Mn:=max{X1,,Xn}M_n:=\max\{X_1,\dots,X_n\}, and the objective is to select the maximum of the sequence. What is the maximum probability of "stopping at the maximum"? That is, what is the stopping time τ\tau adapted to X1,...,XnX_1,...,X_n that maximizes P(Xτ=Mn)P(X_{\tau}=M_n)? This problem was examined by Gilbert and Mosteller \cite{GilMost} when in addition the common distribution is continuous. The optimal win probability in this case is denoted by vn,maxv_{n,max}^*. What if it is desired to "stop within a proportion of the maximum"? That is, for 0<α<10<\alpha<1, what is the stopping rule τ\tau that maximizes P(XταMn)P(X_{\tau} \geq \alpha M_n)? In this note both problems are treated as games, it is proven that for any continuous random variable XX, if τ\tau^* is the optimal stopping rule then P(XταMn)vn,maxP(X_{\tau^*} \geq \alpha M_n)\geq v_{n,max}^*, and this lower bound is sharp. Some examples and another interesting result are presented.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1709.02416,
  title  = {A sharp bound for winning within a proportion of the maximum of a sequence},
  author = {José A. Islas},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1709.02416},
  year   = {2017}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-22T21:36:28.197Z