Economics
We propose a comprehensive framework for solving overlapping-generations (OLG) models in continuous time with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. Our general characterization of equilibrium through the master equation operates on the…
What determines the speed and direction of AI learning? I analyse this question from a microeconomic perspective by studying a model in which AI providers sell access to users who must complete tasks using either AI or labor. Users differ…
Every statistic on laws with finite pth moment that is additive across independent risks and monotone in mean-preserving spreads depends only on an additive function of the mean when p is strictly less than 2, and only on such a function…
The New Keynesian example of Beraja (2023) is not identified at its printed calibration: more than one structure satisfies every condition of its identification step. Two of the paper's six identifying restrictions coincide on equilibrium…
A principal seeks to allocate $k$ identical objects among n sequentially arriving, impatient agents. Each agent privately observes her valuation, and the principal's payoff from allocating an object depends on the recipient's valuation. The…
Standard multinomial probit (MNP) models specify symmetric latent utility distributions, implying that choice probabilities respond symmetrically to positive and negative covariate shifts of the same magnitude. This restriction is often…
This article considers the problem of testing sign agreement among a finite number of parameters. This problem arises in empirical settings such as detecting treatment effects with opposite signs across subgroups, outcomes, or time periods,…
We study a decision-maker who explores --- dynamically choosing what to learn --- before stopping to act. We first reduce this dynamic control problem to a static one: any exploration-and-stopping strategy is equivalent to a choice of the…
This paper considers design-based inference on the average treatment effect in finely stratified experiments, where uncertainty arises only from the randomized treatment assignment. We focus on settings in which units are first stratified…
In this study, we use electricity demand growth, cooling requirements, and backup system operation to evaluate the environmental and economic implications of artificial intelligence data centers in the United States. Our results indicate…
We develop a bias-robust causal inference method for observational panel data settings. Such methods typically impute untreated outcomes, so counterfactual error passes straight into the estimated treatment effect while conventional…
I study the optimal design and analysis of randomized experiments for estimating finite-population average treatment effects when potential outcomes are known to be bounded, as with binary outcomes. Among all assignment mechanisms and a…
We present a model of associative networks that captures how decision makers expand their consideration set through mental associations between alternatives. Our model provides a tractable approach to study how associations shape choice…
How much wage dispersion is attributed to workers, firms, and their sorting depends on how wages are adjusted for observed characteristics. Standard AKM decompositions impose a known linear adjustment. We develop Generalized AKM, a…
National planning counts population, human capital, and artificial-intelligence preparedness in separate ledgers. Demographic accounting has advanced from headcount to skills-adjusted stocks and still debates how much age structure retains…
A principal must decide whether to implement a project. She privately knows the cost, an agent privately knows the benefit. Monetary transfers are not available, and compared to the principal, the agent does not fully internalize the cost.…
We consider the problem of bargaining when transfers between agents are possible. Such situations are typically modelled as coalitional games with transferable utilities. However this model makes a strong implicit assumption: the outcome…
Individuals are often influenced by their peers because deviating from prevailing behavior entails social costs. However, existing peer effects models typically assume that individuals respond similarly to peers who perform better or worse…
The paper considers the problem of variable selection for forecasting electricity spot prices. High-dimensional methods such as LASSO and Elastic Net are widely used for this purpose, and while they exhibit strong predictive performance,…
We provide a new asymptotic framework to derive approximately optimal treatment assignments when sampling noise from data is compounded by fundamental uncertainty due to partial identification. We recenter the reduced-form parameter around…