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A new estimator is proposed for estimating the tail exponent of a heavy-tailed distribution. This estimator, referred to as the layered Hill estimator, is a generalization of the traditional Hill estimator, building upon a layered structure…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-20 Taegyu Kang , Takashi Owada

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

概率论 · 数学 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

We prove new lower bounds for the upper tail probabilities of suprema of Gaussian processes. Unlike many existing bounds, our results are not asymptotic, but supply strong information when one is only a little into the upper tail. We…

概率论 · 数学 2013-02-25 Adam J. Harper

Consider the upper tail probability that the homomorphism count of a fixed graph $H$ within a large sparse random graph $G_n$ exceeds its expected value by a fixed factor $1+\delta$. Going beyond the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model, we establish…

概率论 · 数学 2021-02-01 Sohom Bhattacharya , Amir Dembo

We establish maximal concentration bounds for the iterates generated by stochastic approximation algorithms with general step sizes, where the noise has a finite-state Markovian component plus a Martingale-difference component. When the…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-21 Shubhada Agrawal , Siva Theja Maguluri , Martin Zubeldia

In this paper, we discuss the convergence rate of empirical processes of Gaussian processes for a large class of function families. Our main goal is to show that the tail of the uniform norm of the empirical processes can be dominated by…

概率论 · 数学 2023-03-22 Wen Huo , Yasutaka Shimizu

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2017-10-04 Igor Halperin

The Hill estimator is often used to infer the power behavior in tails of experimental distribution functions. This estimator is known to produce bad results in certain situations which have lead to the so-called Hill horror plots. In this…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-07-27 Jean Nuyts

A novel statistical method is proposed and investigated for estimating a heavy tailed density under mild smoothness assumptions. Statistical analyses of heavy-tailed distributions are susceptible to the problem of sparse information in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-18 Surya T Tokdar , Sheng Jiang , Erika L Cunningham

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-23 Sam Allen , Jonathan Koh , Johan Segers , Johanna Ziegel

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

概率论 · 数学 2016-09-08 Henrik Hult , Sandeep Juneja , Karthyek Murthy

We derive exponential bounds for tail of distribution for natural, i.e. under ordinary logarithm, normalized sums of arrays of random variables, not necessarily independent.

Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-01-09 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Abhishek Chakrabortty

Recent theoretical studies have shown that heavy-tails can emerge in stochastic optimization due to `multiplicative noise', even under surprisingly simple settings, such as linear regression with Gaussian data. While these studies have…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-06 Mert Gurbuzbalaban , Yuanhan Hu , Umut Simsekli , Kun Yuan , Lingjiong Zhu

Bucket Sort is known to run in expected linear time when the input keys are distributed independently and uniformly at random in the interval $[0,1)$. The analysis holds even when a quadratic time algorithm is used to sort the keys in each…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2020-02-26 Ioana O. Bercea , Guy Even

The q-Gaussians are a class of stable distributions which are present in many scientific fields, and that behave as heavy tailed distributions for an especific range of q values. The identification of these values, which are used in the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-06-11 E. L de Santa Helena , C. M. Nascimento , G. J. L. Gerhardt

Gradient clipping is a commonly used technique to stabilize the training process of neural networks. A growing body of studies has shown that gradient clipping is a promising technique for dealing with the heavy-tailed behavior that emerged…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-26 Shaojie Li , Yong Liu

We provide a generalisation of Pinelis' Rademacher-Gaussian tail comparison to complex coefficients. We also establish uniform bounds on the probability that the magnitude of weighted sums of independent random vectors uniform on Euclidean…

概率论 · 数学 2022-03-15 Giorgos Chasapis , Ruoyuan Liu , Tomasz Tkocz

Simple tabulation hashing dates back to Zobrist in 1970 and is defined as follows: Each key is viewed as $c$ characters from some alphabet $\Sigma$, we have $c$ fully random hash functions $h_0, \ldots, h_{c - 1} \colon \Sigma \to \{0,…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2022-05-04 Jakob Bæk Tejs Houen , Mikkel Thorup