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We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2025-11-21 Akash Deep , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Frank J. Fabozzi

This paper gives two theoretical results on estimating low-rank parameter matrices for linear models with multivariate responses. We first focus on robust parameter estimation of low-rank multi-task learning with heavy-tailed data and…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-05-24 Kangqiang Li , Yuxuan Wang

In this paper, the problem of distributed optimization is studied via a network of agents. Each agent only has access to a noisy gradient of its own objective function, and can communicate with its neighbors via a network. To handle this…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-06-19 Yuchen Yang , Kaihong Lu , Long Wang

In this paper a result of Latala about the tail behavior of Gaussian polynomials will be discussed. Latala proved an interesting result about this problem in paper [2]. But his proof applied an incorrect statement at a crucial point. Hence…

概率论 · 数学 2009-12-14 Peter Major

For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2016-04-12 Oliver Kley , Claudia Kluppelberg

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-23 Nicola Gnecco , Nicolai Meinshausen , Jonas Peters , Sebastian Engelke

We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…

概率论 · 数学 2007-12-25 Roy Wagner

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-21 Sam Justice , N. D. Shyamalkumar

Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-06-05 László Németh , András Zempléni

Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence provides…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2009-01-08 R. Dean Malmgren , Daniel B. Stouffer , Adilson E. Motter , Luis A. N. Amaral

A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-05-11 J. Martin van Zyl

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

概率论 · 数学 2020-08-14 Krzysztof Zajkowski

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

概率论 · 数学 2017-12-07 Christos Pelekis

Our focus is on the design and analysis of efficient Monte Carlo methods for computing tail probabilities for the suprema of Gaussian random fields, along with conditional expectations of functionals of the fields given the existence of…

概率论 · 数学 2012-10-09 Robert J. Adler , Jose H. Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…

概率论 · 数学 2019-07-23 Pavlina Jordanova

Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-09-10 Shun Watanabe , Masahito Hayashi

Heavy-tailed distributions are widely used in robust mixture modelling due to possessing thick tails. As a computationally tractable subclass of the stable distributions, sub-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable distribution received much interest in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-01-25 Mahdi Teimouri , Saeid Rezakhah , Adel Mohammdpour

Modern authentication systems store hashed values of passwords of users using cryptographic hash functions. Therefore, to crack a password an attacker needs to guess a hash function input that is mapped to the hashed value, as opposed to…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2019-11-28 Yair Yona , Suhas Diggavi

We study tail probabilities via some Gaussian approximations. Our results make refinements to large deviation theory. The proof builds on classical results by Bahadur and Rao. Binomial distributions and their tail probabilities are…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-05-07 Laszlo Gyorfi , Peter Harremoes , Gabor Tusnady

This paper studies the distributed optimization problem under the influence of heavy-tailed gradient noises. Here, a heavy-tailed noise means that the noise does not necessarily satisfy the bounded variance assumption. Instead, it satisfies…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-05-12 Chao Sun , Huiming Zhang , Bo Chen , Li Yu