相关论文: Martingale Posterior Predictive Coherence: Hausdor…

We consider the Hankel determinant generated by the moments of the even weight function ${\rm e}^{-x^2}(A+B\theta(x^2-a^2)), x\in(-\infty,+\infty), a>0, A\ge0, A+B\ge0$. It is intimately related to the gap probability of the Gaussian…

We consider the totally asymmetric exclusion process on a ring in discrete time with the backward-ordered sequential update and particle-dependent hopping probabilities. Using a combinatorial treatment of the Bethe ansatz, we derive the…

We prove bounds on statistical distances between high-dimensional exchangeable mixture distributions (which we call \emph{permutation mixtures}) and their i.i.d. counterparts. Our results are based on a novel method for controlling $\chi^2$…

The fiducial coincides with the posterior in a group model equipped with the right Haar prior. This result is here generalized. For this the underlying probability space of Kolmogorov is replaced by a $\sigma$-finite measure space and…

We consider fully connected and feedforward deep neural networks with dependent and possibly heavy-tailed weights, as introduced in [26], to address limitations of the standard Gaussian prior. It has been proved in [26] that, as the number…

Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…

Let $X^1,\ldots, X^d$ be sigma-martingales on $(\Omega,{\cal F}, P)$. We show that every bounded martingale (with respect to the underlying filtration) admits an integral representation w.r.t. $X^1,\ldots, X^d$ if and only if there is no…

Let $\theta$ be a Bernoulli measure which is stationary for a random walk generated by finitely many contracting rational affine dilations of $\mathbb{R}^d$, and let $\mathcal{K} = \mathrm{supp}(\theta)$ be the corresponding attractor. An…

We revisit the foundational Moment Formula proved by Roger Lee fifteen years ago. We show that when the underlying stock price martingale admits finite log-moments E[|log(S)|^q] for some positive q, the arbitrage-free growth in the left…

We consider the problem of correctly identifying the \textit{mode} of a discrete distribution $\mathcal{P}$ with sufficiently high probability by observing a sequence of i.i.d. samples drawn from $\mathcal{P}$. This problem reduces to the…

The Bateman--Horn Conjecture predicts how often an irreducible polynomial $f(x) \in \mathbb{Z}[x]$ assumes prime values. We demonstrate that with sufficient averaging in the coefficients of $f$ (viz. exponential in the size of the inputs),…

This paper studies distribution-free inference in settings where the data set has a hierarchical structure -- for example, groups of observations, or repeated measurements. In such settings, standard notions of exchangeability may not hold.…

We establish a new connection between metric Diophantine approximation and the parametric geometry of numbers by proving a variational principle facilitating the computation of the Hausdorff and packing dimensions of many sets of interest…

From the perspective of expectations of randomly stopped sums, Wald's equation and the Optional Sampling Theorem identify situations in which the stopping time can be decoupled from the stopping place, acting as if the two were independent.…

Finite mixture and Markov-switching models generalize and, therefore, nest specifications featuring only one component. While specifying priors in the two: the general (mixture) model and its special (single-component) case, it may be…

We study the behavior of the posterior distribution in high-dimensional Bayesian Gaussian linear regression models having $p\gg n$, with $p$ the number of predictors and $n$ the sample size. Our focus is on obtaining quantitative finite…

This paper addresses the estimation of the nonparametric conditional moment restricted model that involves an infinite-dimensional parameter $g_0$. We estimate it in a quasi-Bayesian way, based on the limited information likelihood, and…

Estimation of permutation entropy (PE) using Bayesian statistical methods is presented for systems where the ordinal pattern sampling follows an independent, multinomial distribution. It is demonstrated that the PE posterior distribution is…

In Bayesian statistics, the selection of noninformative priors is a crucial issue. There have been various discussions on theoretical justification, problems with the Jeffreys prior, and alternative objective priors. Among them, we focus on…

Consider the sequential testing of binary outcomes. The a posteriori belief process and its objective conditional-probability counterpart generally differ but converge to the same result in well-defined tests. We show that unless the two…