相关论文: Martingale Posterior Predictive Coherence: Hausdor…

Let $\pi_n$ be a uniformly chosen random permutation on $[n]$. Using an analysis of the probability that two overlapping consecutive $k$-permutations are order isomorphic, the authors of a recent paper showed that the expected number of…

When variable selection methods are applied to bootstrapped and multiply imputed datasets, the set of selected variables typically varies across iterations. Aggregating results via the union rule can lead to overly dense models. We propose…

We study the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions. We present general posterior convergence rate theorems, which extend several results on posterior convergence rates provided by Ghosal and Van der Vaart (2000), Shen and Wasserman…

We develop a family of mixed finite element methods for a model of nonlinear poroelasticity where, thanks to a rewriting of the constitutive equations, the permeability depends on the total poroelastic stress and on the fluid pressure and…

De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

We consider a class of non-conjugate priors as a mixing family of distributions for a parameter (e.g., Poisson or gamma rate, inverse scale or precision of an inverse-gamma, inverse variance of a normal distribution) of an exponential…

Consider a strong Markov process in continuous time, taking values in some Polish state space. Recently, Douc, Fort and Guillin (2009) introduced verifiable conditions in terms of a supermartingale property implying an explicit control of…

A run of all failures, a run of all successes, or complete separation in a logistic regression each tempts the analyst to declare a probability of exactly zero or one. The central message of this paper is that all three phenomena share a…

A recent approach to the Beck-Fiala conjecture, a fundamental problem in combinatorics, has been to understand when random integer matrices have constant discrepancy. We give a complete answer to this question for two natural models:…

Strassen's classical martingale coupling theorem states that two real-valued random variables are ordered in the convex (resp.\ increasing convex) stochastic order if and only if they admit a martingale (resp.\ submartingale) coupling. By…

In this paper we exploit the notions of conjoined and iterated conditionals, which are defined in the setting of coherence by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval $[0,1]$. We examine the iterated…

We consider several critical wetting models. In the discrete case, these probability laws are known to converge, after an appropriate rescaling, to the law of a reflecting Brownian motion, or of the modulus of a Brownian bridge, according…

We extend the approach of Walker (2003, 2004) to the case of misspecified models. A sufficient condition for establishing rates of convergence is given based on a key identity involving martingales, which does not require construction of…

The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…

The variation of a martingale $p_0^k=p_0,...,p_k$ of probabilities on a finite (or countable) set $X$ is denoted $V(p_0^k)$ and defined by $V(p_0^k)=E(\sum_{t=1}^k|p_t-p_{t-1}|_1)$. It is shown that $V(p_0^k)\leq \sqrt{2kH(p_0)}$, where…

We study bootstrap inference for the $k$th largest coordinate of a normalized sum of independent high-dimensional random vectors. Existing second-order theory for maxima does not directly extend to order statistics, because the event…

We consider filtration consistent nonlinear expectations in probability spaces satisfying only the usual conditions and separability. Under a domination assumption, we demonstrate that these nonlinear expectations can be expressed as the…

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

We derive some simple relations that demonstrate how the posterior convergence rate is related to two driving factors: a "penalized divergence" of the prior, which measures the ability of the prior distribution to propose a nonnegligible…