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In this paper, we investigate a nonparametric approach to provide a recursive estimator of the transition density of a non-stationary piecewise-deterministic Markov process, from only one observation of the path within a long time. In this…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-05-07 Romain Azaïs

We investigate the increase in efficiency of simulated and parallel tempering MCMC algorithms when using non-reversible updates to give them "momentum". By making a connection to a certain simple discrete Markov chain, we show that, under…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-01-29 Gareth O. Roberts , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

We consider piecewise deterministic Markov processes with degenerate transition kernels of the "house-of-cards"-type. We use a splitting scheme based on jump times to prove the absolute continuity, as well as some regularity, of the…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-27 Eva Löcherbach

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2015-11-05 Siddhartha Banerjee , Peter Lofgren

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

The cutoff phenomenon is an abrupt transition from out of equilibrium to equilibrium undergone by certain Markov processes in the limit where the size of the state space tends to infinity: instead of decaying gradually over time, their…

概率论 · 数学 2025-08-29 Justin Salez

Transfer entropy has been used to quantify the directed flow of information between source and target variables in many complex systems. While transfer entropy was originally formulated in discrete time, in this paper we provide a framework…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2017-04-05 Richard E. Spinney , Mikhail Prokopenko , Joseph T. Lizier

We develop a practical approach to establish the stability, that is, the recurrence in a given set, of a large class of controlled Markov chains. These processes arise in various areas of applied science and encompass important numerical…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-02-02 Christophe Andrieu , Vladislav B. Tadić , Matti Vihola

Let $(X_t)_{t = 0 }^{\infty}$ be an irreducible reversible discrete time Markov chain on a finite state space $\Omega $. Denote its transition matrix by $P$. To avoid periodicity issues (and thus ensuring convergence to equilibrium) one…

概率论 · 数学 2018-01-29 Jonathan Hermon , Yuval Peres

We analyse dynamical large deviations of quantum trajectories in Markovian open quantum systems in their full generality. We derive a {\em quantum level-2.5 large deviation principle} for these systems, which describes the joint…

统计力学 · 物理学 2019-04-10 Federico Carollo , Robert L. Jack , Juan P. Garrahan

We study continuous-time Markov chains on the non-negative integers under mild regularity conditions (in particular, the set of jump vectors is finite and both forward and backward jumps are possible). Based on the so-called flux balance…

概率论 · 数学 2024-11-26 Mads Chr Hansen , Carsten Wiuf , Chuang Xu

The transfer entropy is a well-established measure of information flow, which quantifies directed influence between two stochastic time series and has been shown to be useful in a variety fields of science. Here we introduce the transfer…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-07-23 Sosuke Ito

In this paper we consider the problem of computing the stationary distribution of nearly completely decomposable Markov processes, a well-established area in the classical theory of Markov processes with broad applications in the design,…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-06-19 Vasileios Kalantzis , Mark S. Squillante , Chai Wah Wu

Linear fractional Galton-Watson branching processes in i.i.d.~random environment are, on the quenched level, intimately connected to random difference equations by the evolution of the random parameters of their linear fractional marginals.…

概率论 · 数学 2021-10-01 Gerold Alsmeyer

Covariate shift in regression problems and the associated distribution mismatch between training and test data is a commonly encountered phenomenon in machine learning. In this paper, we extend recent results on nonparametric convergence…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-05-28 Lukas Trottner

We study a one-dimensional Markov modulated random walk with jumps. It is assumed that amplitudes of jumps as well as a chosen velocity regime are random and depend on a time spent by the process at a previous state of the underlying Markov…

概率论 · 数学 2013-03-13 Nikita Ratanov

The recurrence features of persistent random walks built from variable length Markov chains are investigated. We observe that these stochastic processes can be seen as L{\'e}vy walks for which the persistence times depend on some internal…

概率论 · 数学 2017-12-11 Peggy Cénac , Basile De Loynes , Yoann Offret , Arnaud Rousselle

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-28 Wei Zhang

In most sampling algorithms, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, transition rates between states correspond to the probability of making a transition in a single time step, and are constrained to be less than or equal to 1. We derive a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-10-13 Andrew B. Berger , Mayur Mudigonda , Michael R. DeWeese , Jascha Sohl-Dickstein

We calculate exact convergence times to reach random bipartite entanglement for various random protocols. The eigenproblem of a Markovian chain governing the process is mapped to a spin chain, thereby obtaining exact expression for the gap…

量子物理 · 物理学 2008-09-26 Marko Znidaric