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Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final clinical outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. Such endpoints are assessed for their…

The use of valid surrogate endpoints is an important stake in clinical research to help reduce both the duration and cost of a clinical trial and speed up the evaluation of interesting treatments. Several methods have been proposed in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-13 Quentin Le Coent , Virginie Rondeau , Catherine Legrand

When direct measurement of a clinically relevant primary endpoint in a clinical trial is infeasible, a surrogate endpoint may be used instead to infer treatment effects. Trial-level surrogates predict the average treatment effect on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Arthur Hughes , Rodolphe Thiébaut , Layla Parast , Boris P. Hejblum

Surrogate endpoints are very important in regulatory decision-making in healthcare, in particular if they can be measured early compared to the long-term final clinical outcome and act as good predictors of clinical benefit. Bivariate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-06 Sylwia Bujkiewicz , Dan Jackson , John R Thompson , Rebecca Turner , Keith R Abrams , Ian R White

Surrogate endpoint (SE) for overall survival in cancer patients is essential to improving the efficiency of oncology drug development. In practice, we may discover a new patient level association with survival, based on one or more clinical…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Wei Zou

We introduce in this paper an extension of the meta-analytic (MA) framework for evaluating surrogate endpoints. While the MA framework is regarded as the gold standard for surrogate endpoint evaluation, it is limited in its ability to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Florian Stijven , Peter B. Gilbert

A common practice in clinical trials is to evaluate a treatment effect on an intermediate endpoint when the true outcome of interest would be difficult or costly to measure. We consider how to validate intermediate endpoints in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-30 Emily K. Roberts , Michael R. Elliott , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

Bivariate meta-analysis provides a useful framework for combining information across related studies and has been utilised to combine evidence from clinical studies to evaluate treatment efficacy on two outcomes. It has also been used to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-05-20 Tasos Papanikos , John R Thompson , Keith R Abrams , Sylwia Bujkiewicz

Candidate binary endpoints are often considered as surrogates for time-to-event (TTE) clinical endpoints, primarily because they can be assessed at earlier time points. To be submitted for regulatory approval candidate binary endpoints need…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-03-23 Renee Y. Ge , Azadeh Shohoudi , Malini Iyengar , Quefeng Li , Judy Li

Objectives: Surrogate endpoints, used to substitute for and predict final clinical outcomes, are increasingly being used to support submissions to health technology assessment agencies. The increase in use of surrogate endpoints has been…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-02-26 Lorna Wheaton , Sylwia Bujkiewicz

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-19 Xuan Wang , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian , Layla Parast

An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting can reduce trial cost and time to product licensure. In this paper, we define a trial level general surrogate as a trial level intermediate response that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-07-08 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael J. Daniels , M. Elizabeth Halloran

A surrogate marker is a biomarker or other physical measurement used to replace a primary outcome in clinical trials to evaluate a treatment effect when the primary outcome of interest is costly, invasive, or takes a long time to observe.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-24 Emily Hsiao , Layla Parast

In many experimental and observational studies, the outcome of interest is often difficult or expensive to observe, reducing effective sample sizes for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) even when identifiable. We study how…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-11 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-23 Susan Athey , Raj Chetty , Guido Imbens , Hyunseung Kang

In many decision-making problems, the primary outcome is expensive, time-consuming, or difficult to observe, so individualized treatment rules (ITRs) may be instead learned from surrogate endpoints. However, a surrogate that is highly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-13 Zeyu Xu , Xiaojie Mao , Hao Mei , Yue Liu

Surrogate endpoints are often used in place of expensive, delayed, or rare true endpoints in clinical trials. However, regulatory authorities require thorough evaluation to accept these surrogate endpoints as reliable substitutes. One…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Gokce Deliorman , Florian Stijven , Wim Van der Elst , Maria del Carmen Pardo , Ariel Alonso

A surrogate endpoint S in a clinical trial is an outcome that may be measured earlier or more easily than the true outcome of interest T. In this work, we extend causal inference approaches to validate such a surrogate using potential…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-04 Emily Roberts , Michael Elliott , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

Trial level surrogates are useful tools for improving the speed and cost effectiveness of trials, but surrogates that have not been properly evaluated can cause misleading results. The evaluation procedure is often contextual and depends on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-23 Michael C Sachs , Erin E Gabriel , Alessio Crippa , Michael J Daniels

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan
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