相关论文: Sharp and Exact Tail Estimates for Multitype Poiss…
We study the tail asymptotics of two functionals (the maximum and the sum of the marks) of a generic cluster in two sub-models of the marked Poisson cluster process, namely the renewal Poisson cluster process and the Hawkes process. Under…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…
In this paper we prove scalar and sample path large deviation principles for a large class of Poisson cluster processes. As a consequence, we provide a large deviation principle for ergodic Hawkes point processes.
This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…
In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…
We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…
Classic results show that the Hawkes self-exciting point process can be viewed as a collection of temporal clusters, where exogenously generated initial events give rise to endogenously driven descendant events. This perspective provides…
In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…
We study asymptotic properties of supercritical Galton-Watson (GW) branching processes in the asymptotic where the mean of the offspring distribution approaches 1 from above. We show that the population-size distribution of the GW branching…
In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…
We introduce a novel and efficient simulation scheme for Hawkes processes on a fixed time grid, leveraging their affine Volterra structure. The key idea is to first simulate the integrated intensity and the counting process using Inverse…
The aim of this note is to estimate the tail of the distribution of the number of particles in an interval under determinantal and Pfaffian point processes. The main result of the note is that the square of the number of particles under the…
Reinforced Galton--Watson processes describe the dynamics of a population where reproduction events are reinforced, in the sense that offspring numbers of forebears can be repeated randomly by descendants. More specifically, the evolution…
A non-homogeneous Poisson cluster model is studied, motivated by insurance applications. The Poisson center process which expresses arrival times of claims, triggers off cluster member processes which correspond to number or amount of…
Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…
We study survival properties of inhomogeneous Galton-Watson processes. We determine the so-called branching number (which is the reciprocal of the critical value for percolation) for these random trees (conditioned on being infinite), which…