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A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

概率论 · 数学 2026-03-09 Sergey Foss , Michael Scheutzow , Anton Tarasenko

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

概率论 · 数学 2008-12-10 Christian Y. Robert , Johan Segers

We consider phase-type scale mixture distributions which correspond to distributions of a product of two independent random variables: a phase-type random variable $Y$ and a nonnegative but otherwise arbitrary random variable $S$ called the…

概率论 · 数学 2017-05-16 Leonardo Rojas-Nandayapa , Wangyue Xie

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

概率论 · 数学 2024-02-15 Quirin Vogel

We consider random walks with finite second moment which drifts to $-\infty$ and have heavy tail. We focus on the events when the minimum and the final value of this walk belong to some compact set. We first specify the associated…

概率论 · 数学 2013-12-12 Vincent Bansaye , Vladimir Vatutin

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Janet E. Heffernan , Sidney I. Resnick

We consider the sums $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $\xi$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the…

概率论 · 数学 2013-03-20 D. Denisov , S. Foss , D. Korshunov

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-21 Sam Justice , N. D. Shyamalkumar

An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We give three disjoint groups of sufficient…

In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the…

概率论 · 数学 2009-09-02 Kenji Nakagawa

The sums and maxima of weighted non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraints are that there exists a unique…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-09-20 Natalia Markovich

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

概率论 · 数学 2013-05-29 Michael I. Tribelsky

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

We study the long-time behavior of the probability density associated with the decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by a superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times. It is shown that if the random walk is…

统计力学 · 物理学 2011-05-02 S. I. Denisov , H. Kantz

In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…

概率论 · 数学 2023-11-28 Nikola Zlatanov

Let $\{\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\}$ be a sequence of independent random variables (not necessarily identically distributed), and $\eta$ be a counting random variable independent of this sequence. We obtain sufficient conditions on…

概率论 · 数学 2016-04-07 Svetlana Danilenko , Simona Paškauskaitė , Jonas Šiaulys

It is known that large deviations of sums of subexponential random variables are most likely realised by deviations of a single random variable. In this article we give a detailed picture of how subexponential random variables are…

概率论 · 数学 2013-06-25 Inés Armendáriz , Michail Loulakis

The article studies the almost surely asymptotics of extreme values $\bar{\xi}_n = \max_{1\leq i \leq n} \xi_i$, where $ \xi , \xi_1 , \xi_2 , \ldots$ are discrete identically distributed random variables. One of the main results on this…

概率论 · 数学 2025-03-27 Kateryna Akbash , Ivan Matsak

We introduce a new class of heavy-tailed distributions for which any weighted average of independent and identically distributed random variables is larger than one such random variable in (usual) stochastic order. We show that many…

概率论 · 数学 2025-06-18 Yuyu Chen , Seva Shneer

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden
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