相关论文: Epidemic extinction in a simplicial susceptible-in…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…
The focus of this article is on the dynamics of a new susceptible-infected model which consists of a susceptible group ($S$) and two different infectious groups ($I_1$ and $I_2$). Once infected, an individual becomes a member of one of…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
We explore how heterogeneity in the intensity of interactions between people affects epidemic spreading. For that, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a complex network, where a link connecting individuals $i$ and $j$ is…
We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We investigate the expected time to extinction in the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model of disease spreading. Rather than using stochastic simulations, or asymptotic calculations in network models, we solve the extinction time…
Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…
We model an epidemic where the per-person infectiousness in a network of geographic localities changes with the total number of active cases. This would happen as people adopt more stringent non-pharmaceutical precautions when the…
Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…
Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…
We derive the master equations for the Susceptible-Infected (SI) model on general hypernetworks with~$N$-body interactions. We solve these equations exactly for infinite~$d$-regular hypernetworks, and obtain an explicit solution for the…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
The quasi-deterministic limit of the generic extinction transition is considered within the framework of standard epidemiological models. The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is known to exhibit a transition from extinction to…
The non-equilibrium phase transition in models for epidemic spreading with long-range infections in combination with incubation times is investigated by field-theoretical and numerical methods. Here the spreading process is modelled by…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of epidemics in the vicinity of the threshold infectivity. We derive the distribution of total outbreak size in the limit of large population size $N$. This is accomplished by mapping the…
We analyse a stochastic SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of…