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We study large time behavior of critical marked Hawkes processes and related branching particle systems. In case of marked Hawkes processes we assume that the kernel function has multiplicative form and the marks corresponding to the events…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-05 Anna Talarczyk

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

概率论 · 数学 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

This paper is devoted to establishing the full scaling limit theorems for multivariate Hawkes processes. Under some mild conditions on the exciting kernels, we develop a new way to prove that after a suitable time-spatial scaling, the…

概率论 · 数学 2024-12-20 Wei Xu

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

This paper focuses on a class of linear Hawkes processes with general immigrants. These are counting processes with shot noise intensity, including self-excited and externally excited patterns. For such processes, we introduce the concept…

概率论 · 数学 2015-04-27 Alexandre Boumezoued

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-06-14 Paul Embrechts , Matthias Kirchner

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

概率论 · 数学 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

Analysis of gun violence in the United States has utilized various models based on spatiotemporal point processes. Previous studies have identified a contagion effect in gun violence, characterized by bursts of diffusion across urban…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-08-20 Zheng Dong , Yao Xie

This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-07 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2013-01-08 E. Bacry , J. F Muzy

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodríguez

In this paper we study the number of customers in infinite-server queues with a self-exciting (Hawkes) arrival process. Initially we assume that service requirements are exponentially distributed and that the Hawkes arrival process is of a…

概率论 · 数学 2018-05-02 David Koops , Mayank Saxena , Onno Boxma , Michel Mandjes

We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…

概率论 · 数学 2012-02-07 Emmanuel Bacry , Sylvain Delattre , Marc Hoffmann , Jean François Muzy

We consider a particle system with weights and the scaling limits derived from its occupation time. We let the particles perform independent recurrent L\'evy motions and we assume that their initial positions and weights are given by a…

概率论 · 数学 2018-01-29 Łukasz Treszczotko

Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2018-04-04 Marcello Rambaldi , Vladimir Filimonov , Fabrizio Lillo

We consider partial exclusion processes~(PEPs) on the one-dimensional square lattice, that is, a system of interacting particles where each particle random walks according to a jump rate satisfying an exclusion rule that allows up to a…

概率论 · 数学 2026-04-15 Patrícia Gonçalves , Kohei Hayashi , Makiko Sasada

The order flow in high-frequency financial markets has been of particular research interest in recent years, as it provides insights into trading and order execution strategies and leads to better understanding of the supply-demand…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-26 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodriguez

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2015-03-13 Thibault Jaisson , Mathieu Rosenbaum