相关论文: Optimal Mitigation of SIR Epidemics Under Model Un…

This paper proposes an approach to mitigate epidemic spread in a population of strategic agents by encouraging safer behaviors through carefully designed rewards. These rewards, which adapt to the evolving state of the epidemic, are…

As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our…

Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model…

A number of theoretical models have been developed in recent years modelling epidemic spread in educational settings such as universities to help inform re-opening strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, these studies have had…

Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…

The process of contagiousness spread modelling is well-known in epidemiology. However, the application of spread modelling to banking market is quite recent. In this work, we present a system of ordinary differential equations, simulating…

A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…

The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale…

Infectious diseases pose major public health challenges to society, highlighting the importance of designing effective policies to reduce economic loss and mortality. In this paper, we propose a framework for sequential decision-making…

The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…

A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…

In the political decision process and control of COVID-19 (and other epidemic diseases), mathematical models play an important role. It is crucial to understand and quantify the uncertainty in models and their predictions in order to take…

We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distancing) as control…

This paper considers the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with an underlying network structure among subpopulations and focuses on the effect of social distancing to regulate the epidemic level. We demonstrate that if…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

This paper presents a discrete time probabilistic dynamic for simulating a contact-based epidemic spreading based on discrete time Markov chain process, in particular the attention is addressed to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR)…

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…

We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…

During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands arising from public health and economic cost. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimise the economic…

The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…