相关论文: Optimal Mitigation of SIR Epidemics Under Model Un…

Within the likes of any highly contagious and unpredictable disease, lies a predictable and attainable growth rate that researchers can find in order to make logistical conclusions about that particular disease and its affected regions'…

Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…

We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…

Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…

We investigate the time-optimal control problem in SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic models, focusing on different control policies: vaccination, isolation, culling, and reduction of transmission. Applying the Pontryagin's…

We numerically study the dynamics of the SIR disease model on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the total fraction of infected nodes and of the maximum…

We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…

In this study, we present an integro-differential model to simulate the local spread of infections. The model incorporates a standard susceptible-infected-recovered (\textit{SIR}-) model enhanced by an integral kernel, allowing for…

We present a mathematical analysis of the early detection of Ebola virus. The propagation of the virus is analysed by using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model. In order to provide useful predictions about the potential…

We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…

We study an optimal control problem where the objective is to find the best vaccine allocation during an epidemic outbreak. The epidemic dynamics is described by an age-structured SIR model with nonlocal interactions. Both the infection and…

Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…

Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…

We apply optimal control theory to a generalized SEIR-type model. The proposed system has three controls, representing social distancing, preventive means, and treatment measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze…

Motivated with various responses of world governments to COVID-19, here we develop a toy model of the dependence epidemics spreading on the availability of tests for disease. Our model, that we call SUDR+K, is based on usual SIR model, but…

A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…

Many real-world applications based on spreading processes in complex networks aim to deliver information to specific target nodes. However, it remains challenging to optimally select a set of spreaders to initiate the spreading process. In…

The mathematical interpretation of interventions for the mitigation of epidemics and pandemics in the literature often involves finding the optimal time to initiate an intervention and/or the use of infections to manage impact. Whilst these…

We study a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a network of $n$ interacting subpopulations. We analyze the transient and asymptotic behavior of the infection dynamics in each node of the network. In contrast to the…

Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and…