相关论文: The Last-Success Stopping Problem with Random Obse…
In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each…
Given two probability measures $\mu, \nu$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, in subharmonic order, we describe optimal stopping times $\tau$ that maximize/minimize the cost functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_\tau|^{\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$, where $(B_t)_t$ is…
We shall show in this paper that there are experiments which are Bernoulli trials with success probability p > 0.5, and which have the curious feature that it is possible to correctly predict the outcome with probability > p.
We study the problem of computing the tightest upper and lower bounds on the probability that the sum of $n$ dependent Bernoulli random variables exceeds an integer $k$. Under knowledge of all pairs of bivariate distributions denoted by a…
In this paper, we study the optimal stopping problem in the so-called exploratory framework, in which the agent takes actions randomly conditioning on current state and an entropy-regularized term is added to the reward functional. Such a…
In this paper we develop a deep learning method for optimal stopping problems which directly learns the optimal stopping rule from Monte Carlo samples. As such, it is broadly applicable in situations where the underlying randomness can…
In this paper, we present a novel method for computing the asymptotic values of both the optimal threshold, and the probability of success in sequences of optimal stopping problems. This method, based on the resolution of a first-order…
A general result on the method of randomized stopping is proved. It is applied to optimal stopping of controlled diffusion processes with unbounded coefficients to reduce it to an optimal control problem without stopping. This is motivated…
Let $V(k)$ denote the waiting time, the number of trials needed to get a consecutive $k$ ones. We propose recurrence algorithms for the probability distribution function (pdf) and the probability generating function (pgf) of $V(k)$ in…
We consider the optimal stopping problem for a Gauss-Markov process conditioned to adopt a prescribed terminal distribution. By applying a time-space transformation, we show it is equivalent to stopping a Brownian bridge pinned at a random…
While many techniques have been developed for chance constrained stochastic optimal control with Gaussian disturbance processes, far less is known about computationally efficient methods to handle non-Gaussian processes. In this paper, we…
We use martingale and stochastic analysis techniques to study a continuous-time optimal stopping problem, in which the decision maker uses a dynamic convex risk measure to evaluate future rewards. We also find a saddle point for an…
We consider optimal stopping problems for a Brownian motion and a geometric Brownian motion with a "disorder", assuming that the moment of a disorder is uniformly distributed on a finite interval. Optimal stopping rules are found as the…
In the best choice problem with random arrivals, an unknown number $n$ of rankable items arrive at times sampled from the uniform distribution. As is well known, a real-time player can ensure stopping at the overall best item with…
We approximate the distribution of the sum of independent but not necessarily identically distributed Bernoulli random variables using a shifted binomial distribution where the three parameters (the number of trials, the probability of…
In a classical problem for the stopping of a diffusion process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$, where the goal is to maximise the expected discounted value of a function of the stopped process ${\mathbb E}^x[e^{-\beta \tau}g(X_\tau)]$, maximisation…
Estimating the parameter of a Bernoulli process arises in many applications, including photon-efficient active imaging where each illumination period is regarded as a single Bernoulli trial. Motivated by acquisition efficiency when multiple…
We extend the classical setting of an optimal stopping problem under full information to include for problems with an unknown state. The framework allows the unknown state to influence (i) the drift of the underlying process, (ii) the…
The question of the optimality of Thompson Sampling for solving the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem had been open since 1933. In this paper we answer it positively for the case of Bernoulli rewards by providing the first finite-time…
Robbins' problem of optimal stopping asks one to minimise the expected {\it rank} of observation chosen by some nonanticipating stopping rule. We settle a conjecture regarding the {\it value} of the stopped variable under the rule optimal…