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This paper introduces a new discrete distribution suggested by curtailed sampling rules common in early-stage clinical trials. We derive the distribution of the smallest number of independent Bernoulli(p) trials needed in order to observe…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-02-16 Michelle DeVeaux , Michael J. Kane , Daniel Zelterman

This note considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent and identically distributed. Consider $X_1,\dots,X_n$ to be an independent sequence of random variables, let…

概率论 · 数学 2017-09-11 José A. Islas

Candidates arrive sequentially for an interview process which results in them being ranked relative to their predecessors. Based on the ranks available at each time, one must develop a decision mechanism that selects or dismisses the…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2024-05-08 George V. Moustakides , Xujun Liu , Olgica Milenkovic

Recently noticed ability of restart to reduce the expected completion time of first-passage processes allows appealing opportunities for performance improvement in a variety of settings. However, complex stochastic processes often exhibit…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-02-27 Sergey Belan

We analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of observing the expected number of successes at each stage of a sequence of nested Bernoulli trials. Our motivation is the attempt to give a genuinely frequentist interpretation to the…

概率论 · 数学 2015-05-19 Eckhard Schlemm

Bruss's odds theorem \cite{Bruss1} addresses the problem of determining the optimal stopping time for sequences of independent indicator functions. In this note, we derive upper and lower bounds for the success probability under the optimal…

概率论 · 数学 2025-11-27 A. M. Kabaeva , A. V. Logachov , A. A. Yambartsev

Given an initial (resp., terminal) probability measure $\mu$ (resp., $\nu$) on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we characterize those optimal stopping times $\tau$ that maximize or minimize the functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_\tau|^{\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$,…

概率论 · 数学 2017-11-09 Nassif Ghoussoub , Young-Heon Kim , Tongseok Lim

We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities $\mathcal{P}$. The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level $0$ of…

概率论 · 数学 2016-07-08 Erhan Bayraktar , Song Yao

Many discrete-time optimal stopping problems are known to have more tractable limit forms based on a planar Poisson process. Using this tool we find a solution to the optimal stopping problem for i.i.d. sequence of $n$ discrete uniform…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-09 Alexander Gnedin

In the classical optimal stopping problem, a player is given a sequence of random variables $X_1\ldots X_n$ with known distributions. After observing the realization of $X_i$, the player can either accept the observed reward from $X_i$ and…

离散数学 · 计算机科学 2020-07-24 Shipra Agrawal , Jay Sethuraman , Xingyu Zhang

In the standard models for optimal multiple stopping problems it is assumed that between two exercises there is always a time period of deterministic length $\delta$, the so called refraction period. This prevents the optimal exercise times…

证券定价 · 定量金融 2013-10-17 Sören Christensen , Albrecht Irle , Stephan Jürgens

We solve the problem of optimal stopping of a Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the stopping time's distribution is a given measure consisting of finitely-many atoms. In particular, we show that this problem can be converted to…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2017-07-07 Erhan Bayraktar , Christopher W. Miller

We consider the problem of optimally stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning time so as to maximise the value of the process upon stopping. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we assume the stopper has a general continuous prior and is…

概率论 · 数学 2020-03-17 Kristoffer Glover

We study a robust optimal stopping problem with respect to a set $\cP$ of mutually singular probabilities. This can be interpreted as a zero-sum controller-stopper game in which the stopper is trying to maximize its pay-off while an adverse…

概率论 · 数学 2016-04-12 Erhan Bayraktar , Song Yao

A Bernoulli scheme with unequal harmonic success probabilities is investigated, together with some of its natural extensions. The study includes the number of successes over some time window, the times to (between) successive successes and…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-17 Thierry Huillet , Martin Möhle

Sequential likelihood ratio testing is found to be most powerful in sequential studies with early stopping rules when grouped data come from the one-parameter exponential family. First, to obtain this elusive result, the probability measure…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-28 Sergey Tarima , Nancy Flournoy

We investigate an optimal stopping problem for the expected value of a discounted payoff on a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion under two constraints on the possible stopping times: only at exogenous random times and only during a…

概率论 · 数学 2024-11-20 Takuji Arai , Masahiko Takenaka

Here and in a follow-on paper, we consider a simple control problem in which the underlying dynamics depend on a parameter $a$ that is unknown and must be learned. In this paper, we assume that $a$ is bounded, i.e., that $|a| \le…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-09-20 Jacob Carruth , Maximilian F. Eggl , Charles Fefferman , Clarence W. Rowley

The classical secretary problem has been generalized over the years into several directions. In this paper we confine our interest to those generalizations which have to do with the more general problem of stopping on a last observation of…

性能 · 计算机科学 2017-05-29 Guy Louchard

We treat success runs of independent identically distributed Bernoulli trials (with success parameter $p$) distributed according to the Type II binomial distribution of order $k$. However, the success runs are separated by a gap $g\ge1$ (a…

概率论 · 数学 2025-12-02 S. J. Dilworth , S. R. Mane