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A reputation of high volatility accompanies the emergence of Bitcoin as a financial asset. This paper intends to nuance this reputation and clarify our understanding of Bitcoin's volatility. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices…
This paper conducts an extensive analysis of Bitcoin return series, with a primary focus on three volatility metrics: historical volatility (calculated as the sample standard deviation), forecasted volatility (derived from GARCH-type…
This paper investigates the effects of the launch of Bitcoin futures on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. Based on one-minute price data collected from four cryptocurrency exchanges, we first examine the change in realized volatility…
We show Bitcoin implied volatility on a 5 minute time horizon is modestly predictable from price, volatility momentum and alternative data including sentiment and engagement. Lagged Bitcoin index price and volatility movements contribute to…
The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…
Cryptocurrency, the most controversial and simultaneously the most interesting asset, has attracted many investors and speculators in recent years. The visibly significant market capitalization of cryptos also motivates modern financial…
We study recurrent patterns in volatility and volume for major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, using data from two centralized exchanges (Coinbase Pro and Binance) and a decentralized exchange (Uniswap V2). We find systematic patterns…
Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental,…
Using the asymmetric stochastic volatility model, this study investigates the day-of-the-week and holiday effects on the returns and volatility of Bitcoin from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2019; in this context, we also discuss the…
Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst…
In December 2017, two leading derivative exchanges, CBOE and CME, introduced the first regulated Bitcoin futures. Our aim is estimating their causal impact on Bitcoin volatility and trading volume. Employing a new causal approach, C-ARIMA,…
In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest…
By monitoring the time evolution of the most liquid Futures contracts traded globally as acquired using the Bloomberg API from 03 January 2000 until 15 December 2014 we were able to forecast the S&P 500 index beating the Buy and Hold…
How do supply and demand from informed traders drive market prices of bitcoin options? Deribit options tick-level data supports the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis about the market maker's supply. The main demand-side effects are that…
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…
We introduce a local volatility model for the valuation of options on commodity futures by using European vanilla option prices. The corresponding calibration problem is addressed within an online framework, allowing the use of multiple…
This paper examines factors that influence prices of most common five cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero over 2010-2018 using weekly data. The study employs ARDL technique and documents several findings.…
Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed…
In this paper, we analyze traders' behavior within both centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs), focusing on the volatility of Bitcoin prices and the trading activity of investors engaged in perpetual future…
In this paper, we develop a general rough volatility model for commodities that provides an automatic calibration of the initial term structure of the futures prices and an appropriate treatment of the Samuelson effect. After the…