相关论文: A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and c…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…
Consider a sample of size $N$ from a population governed by a hierarchical species sampling model. We study the large $N$ asymptotic behavior of the number ${\bf K}_N$ of clusters and the number ${\bf M}_{r,N}$ of clusters with frequency…
Many epidemic processes in networks spread by stochastic contacts among their connected vertices. There are two limiting cases widely analyzed in the physics literature, the so-called contact process (CP) where the contagion is expanded at…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and…
We propose and solve exactly a model of a network that has both a tunable degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. Among other things, our results indicate that increased clustering leads to a decrease in the size of the…
In a prior study, a novel deterministic compartmental model known as the SEIHRK model was introduced, shedding light on the pivotal role of test kits as an intervention strategy for mitigating epidemics. Particularly in heterogeneous…
The spreading of an epidemic is determined by the connectiviy patterns which underlie the population. While it has been noted that a virus spreads more easily on a network in which global distances are small, it remains a great challenge to…
Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…
We consider a branching random walk in a random space-time environment of disasters where each particle is killed when meeting a disaster. This extends the model of the "random walk in a disastrous random environment" introduced by [15]. We…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
In this paper, we uncover new asymptotic isolation by distance patterns occurring under long-range dispersal of offspring. We extend a recent work of the first author, in which this information was obtained from forwards-in-time dynamics…
The spread of a contagious disease clearly depends on when infected individuals come into contact with susceptible ones. Such effects, however, have remained largely unexplored in the study of epidemic outbreaks. In particular, it remains…
We use a statistical model to investigate the detectability (defined by the requirement that they are in causal contact with us) of communicating civilizations within a volume of the universe surrounding our location. If the civilizations…
Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a…
We consider a random walk on top of the contact process on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with $d\geq 1$. In particular, we focus on the "contact process as seen from the random walk". Under the assumption that the infection rate of the contact process is…
Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly…
The epidemic threshold is probably the most studied quantity in the modelling of epidemics on networks. For a large class of networks and dynamics the epidemic threshold is well studied and understood. However, it is less so for clustered…
Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…