相关论文: A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and c…

We study stationary epidemic processes in scale-free networks with local awareness behavior adopted by only susceptible, only infected, or all nodes. We find that while the epidemic size in the susceptible-aware and the all-aware models…

Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…

We show for a model of scale-free graphs with biased partner choice that knowing the exponent for the degree distribution is in general not sufficient to decide epidemic threshold properties for exponents less than three.We show that the…

The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents…

The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…

In this work we study a model of tax evasion. We considered a fixed population divided in three compartments, namely honest tax payers, tax evaders and a third class between the mentioned two, which we call \textit{susceptibles} to become…

The asymptotic results that underlie applications of extreme random fields often assume that the variables are located on a regular discrete grid, identified with $\mathbb{Z}^2$, and that they satisfy stationarity and isotropy conditions.…

A key feature of a sequential study is that the actual sample size is a random variable that typically depends on the outcomes collected. While hypothesis testing theory for sequential designs is well established, parameter and precision…

We present a finite-size scaling theory of a contact process with permanent immunity on uncorrelated scale-free networks. We model an epidemic outbreak by an analog of the susceptible-infected-removed model where an infected individual…

The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…

Consider a Markovian SIR epidemic model in a homogeneous community. To this model we add a rate at which individuals are tested, and once an infectious individual tests positive it is isolated and each of their contacts are traced and…

We consider a multitype epidemic model which is a natural extension of the randomized Reed--Frost epidemic model. The main result is the derivation of an asymptotic Gaussian limit theorem for the final size of the epidemic. The method of…

In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for…

Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…

Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…

A model for the spread of an infection is analyzed for different population structures. The interactions within the population are described by small world networks, ranging from ordered lattices to random graphs. For the more ordered…

Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…

In real world, there is a significant relation between human behaviors and epidemic spread. Especially, the reactions among individuals in different communities to epidemics may be different, which lead to cluster synchronization of human…

Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…