相关论文: A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and c…
This work focuses on clustering populations with a hierarchical dependency structure that can be described by a tree. A particular example that is the focus of our work is the phylogenetic tree, with nodes often representing biological…
The persistence probability, $P_C(t)$, of a cluster to remain unaggregated is studied in cluster-cluster aggregation, when the diffusion coefficient of a cluster depends on its size $s$ as $D(s) \sim s^\gamma$. In the mean-field the problem…
To understand how hidden information can be extracted from statistical networks, planted models in random graphs have been the focus of intensive study in recent years. In this work, we consider the detection of a planted matching, i.e., an…
Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
In epidemiological studies, the capture-recapture (CRC) method is a powerful tool that can be used to estimate the number of diseased cases or potentially disease prevalence based on data from overlapping surveillance systems. Estimators…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Effective contact tracing is crucial to contain epidemic spreading without disrupting societal activities especially in the present time of coexistence with a pandemic outbreak. Large gatherings play a key role, potentially favouring…
A generalization of Kermack-McKendick model of epidemics to the case of inhomogeneous susceptibility of population is proposed. Some quantitative and qualitative features of epidemic process development in this situation are established.
We consider an infectious disease spreading along the edges of a network which may have significant clustering. The individuals in the population have heterogeneous infectiousness and/or susceptibility. We define the out-transmissibility of…
We study a family of Crump--Mode--Jagers branching processes in random environment that explode, i.e. that grow infinitely large in finite time with positive probability. Building on recent work of the author and Iyer (``On the structure of…
An unsupervised classification method for point events occurring on a network of lines is proposed. The idea relies on the distributional flexibility and practicality of random partition models to discover the clustering structure featuring…
Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as…
Clustering is the propensity of nodes that share a common neighbour to be connected. It is ubiquitous in many networks but poses many modelling challenges. Clustering typically manifests itself by a higher than expected frequency of…
We consider a supercritical general branching population where the lifetimes of individuals are i.i.d. with arbitrary distribution and each individual gives birth to new individuals at Poisson times independently from each others. The…
There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks…
We present exact and asymptotic results for clusters in the one-dimensional totally asymmetric exclusion process (TASEP) with two different dynamics. The expected length of the largest cluster is shown to diverge logarithmically with…
Investigations of a possible connection between population density and the propagation and magnitude of epidemics have so far led to mixed and unconvincing results. There are three reasons for that. (i) Previous studies did not focus on the…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…