相关论文: Emergence and mitigation of extreme events in a pa…

Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…

Extreme events are often multivariate in nature. A compound extreme occurs when a combination of variables jointly produces a significant impact, even if individual components are not necessarily marginally extreme. Compound extremes have…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Extreme events that arise spontaneously in chaotic dynamical systems often have an adverse impact on the system or the surrounding environment. As such, their mitigation is highly desirable. Here, we introduce a novel control strategy for…

We numerically show that extreme events induced by parameter mismatches or noise in coupled oscillatory systems can be anticipated and suppressed before they actually occur. We show this in a main system unidirectionally coupled to an…

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Formulating mitigation strategies is one of the main aspect in the dynamical study of extreme events. Apart from the effective control, easy implementation of the devised tool should also be given importance. In this work, we analyze the…

In spite of precautions to avoid the harmful effects of extreme events, we experience recurrently phenomena that overcome the preventive barriers. These barriers usually increase drastically right after the occurrence of such extreme…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…

We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…

Complex systems universally exhibit emergence, where macroscopic dynamics arise from local interactions, but a predictive law governing this process has been absent. We establish and verify such a law. We define a system's causal power at a…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Since 1970, the R\"ossler system has remained as a considerably simpler and minimal dimensional chaos serving system. Unveiling the dynamics of a system of two coupled chaotic oscillators that leads to the emergence of extreme events in the…

We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big-jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes…

Machine learning models play a vital role in the prediction task in several fields of study. In this work, we utilize the ability of machine learning algorithms to predict the occurrence of extreme events in a nonlinear mechanical system.…