相关论文: Emergence and mitigation of extreme events in a pa…

We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change.…

Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…

Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

We study the dynamics of a parametrically and externally driven Rayleigh-Lienard hybrid model and report the emergence of extreme bursting events due to a novel pulse-shaped explosion mechanism. The system exhibits complex periodic and…

In this paper, we study the effects of correlated random phases in the intensity of a superposition of $N$ wave-fields. Our results suggest that regardless of whether the phase distribution is continuous or discrete if the phases are random…

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…

Extreme events have low occurrence probabilities and display pronounced deviation from their average behaviour, such as earthquakes or power blackouts. Such extreme events occurring on the nodes of a complex network have been extensively…

Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…

The occurrence of some extreme events (such as marine heatwaves or exceptional circulations) can cause other extreme events (such as heatwave, drought and flood). These concurrent extreme events have a great impact on environment and human…

Systems of FitzHugh-Nagumo units with different coupling topologies are capable of self-generating and -terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics that can be regarded as extreme events due to their rareness and recurrent…

This book provides a comprehensive introduction for the study of extreme events in the context of dynamical systems. The introduction provides a broad overview of the interdisciplinary research area of extreme events, underlining its…

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…

Extreme events taking place on networks are not uncommon. We show that it is possible to manipulate the extreme events occurrence probabilities and its distribution over the nodes on scale-free networks by tuning the nodal capacity. This…