相关论文: Emergence and mitigation of extreme events in a pa…

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of…

Consider two stationary time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. We aim to detect whether they have a causal relation, that is, if a change in one causes a change in the other. Usual methods for causal discovery are not well…

This work addresses the data-driven forecasting of extreme events in the airfoil flow. These events may be seen as examples of the kind of unsteady and intermittent dynamics relevant to the flow around airfoils and wings in a variety of…

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

This paper proposes an event-triggered control scheme for multivariable extremum seeking of static maps. Both static and dynamic triggering conditions are developed. Integrating Lyapunov and averaging theories for discontinuous systems, a…

We analyse circumstances in which bifurcation-driven jumps in AI systems are associated with emergent heavy-tailed outcome distributions. By analysing how a control parameter's random fluctuations near a catastrophic threshold generate…

Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…

We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…

Problem definition: Data-driven models in machine learning have enabled efficient management of production systems. However, a majority of machine learning models are devoted to modeling the mean response or average pattern, which is…

Spatiotemporal complexity is induced in a two dimensional nonlinear disordered lattice through the modulational instability of an initially weakly perturbed excitation. In the course of evolution we observe the formation of transient as…

Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…

An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…

Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…

Extreme events, or rogue waves, are high-amplitude, rare occurrences that emerge across diverse physical systems and often defy conventional statistical predictions. While optical systems provide a controlled setting for studying these…

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…