相关论文: Emergence and mitigation of extreme events in a pa…
When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…
We analyse extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500…
Congestion and extreme events in transportation networks are emergent phenomena with significant socio-economic implications. In this work, we study congestion and extreme event properties on real urban street (planar) networks drawn from…
The spatiotemporal complexity induced by perturbed initial excitations through the development of modulational instability in nonlinear lattices with or without disorder, may lead to the formation of very high amplitude, localized transient…
Extreme events generated by complex systems have been intensively studied in many fields due to their great impact on scientific research and our daily lives. However, their prediction is still a challenge in spite of the tremendous…
Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…
Estimating the probability of extreme events involving multiple risk factors is a critical challenge in fields such as finance and climate science. This paper proposes a semi-parametric approach to estimate the probability that a…
Over the past decade, extreme weather events have significantly increased worldwide, leading to widespread power outages and blackouts. As these threats continue to challenge power distribution systems, the importance of mitigating the…
Random walk on discrete lattice models is important to understand various types of transport processes. The extreme events, defined as exceedences of the flux of walkers above a prescribed threshold, have been studied recently in the…
The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
We often rely on probabilistic measures -- e.g. event probability or expected time -- to characterize systems' safety. However, determining these quantities for extremely low-probability events is generally challenging, as standard safety…
Extreme value (EV) statistics of correlated systems are widely investigated in many fields, spanning the spectrum from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction. Does the unavoidable discrete sampling of a continuous correlated…
We study the impact of the coupling topology on the ability of various networked dynamical systems to generate extreme events. By determining the coupling strength that is necessary to generate an extreme event in the collective dynamics of…
We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the…
The kinematics and dynamics of deterministic physical systems have been a foundation of our understanding of the world since Galileo and Newton. For real systems, however, uncertainty is largely present via external forces such as friction…
Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival…
The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…
We notice signatures of extreme events-like behavior in a laser based Ikeda map. The trajectory of the system occasionally travels a large distance away from the bounded chaotic region, which appears as intermittent spiking events in the…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…