相关论文: Model predictive control for optimal social distan…

A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…

We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…

Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…

We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…

We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a…

Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…

In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…

This article considers the optimal control of the SIR model with both transmission and treatment uncertainty. It follows the model presented in Gatto and Schellhorn (2021). We make four significant improvements on the latter paper. First,…

The effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic is one the most challenging issues of nowadays. The design of optimal control policies is perplexed from a variety of social, political, economical and epidemiological factors. Here, based on…

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…

With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…

Social distancing as one of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions can help slow down the spread of diseases, like in the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective social distancing, unless enforced as drastic lockdowns and mandatory cordon…

How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a capacity constrained Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. The key modelling feature is that individuals are…

When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…

We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential…