相关论文: Fat Tails and Black Swans: Exact Results for Multi…

This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of…

We study a stochastic multiplicative process with reset events. It is shown that the model develops a stationary power-law probability distribution for the relevant variable, whose exponent depends on the model parameters. Two qualitatively…

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Motivated by applications in hydrodynamics and networks of thermostatically-control loads in buildings we study control of linear dynamical systems driven by additive and also multiplicative noise of a general position. Utilizing…

Power-law tails are ubiquitous in income distributions and in the energy distributions of diluted relativistic gases. We analyze the conceptual link between these two cases. In economic interactions fat tails arise because the richest…

[Takayasu et al., Phys. Rev.Lett. 79, 966 (1997)] revisited the question of stochastic processes with multiplicative noise, which have been studied in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a…

We study a discrete-time stochastic process that can also be interpreted as a model for a viral evolution. A distinguishing feature of our process is power-law tails due to dynamics that resembles preferential attachment models. In the…

Fat tails in financial time series and increase of stocks cross-correlations in high volatility periods are puzzling facts that ask for new paradigms. Both points are of key importance in fundamental research as well as in Risk Management…

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

Effects of randomness on non-integer power law tails in multiplicatively interacting stochastic processes are investigated theoretically. Generally, randomness causes decrease of the exponent of tails and the growth rate of processes.…

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

Although stochastic optimization is central to modern machine learning, the precise mechanisms underlying its success, and in particular, the precise role of the stochasticity, still remain unclear. Modelling stochastic optimization…

Analytical and numerical studies on many-body stochastic processes with multiplicative interactions are reviewed. The method of moment relations is used to investigate effects of asymmetry and randomness in interactions. Probability…

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

We present the elliptical processes -- a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsumes the Gaussian process and the Student-t process. This generalization includes a range of new fat-tailed behaviors yet retains computational…

Heavy-tailed or power-law distributions are becoming increasingly common in biological literature. A wide range of biological data has been fitted to distributions with heavy tails. Many of these studies use simple fitting methods to find…

Fat tailed statistics and power-laws are ubiquitous in many complex systems. Usually the appearance of of a few anomalously successful individuals (bio-species, investors, websites) is interpreted as reflecting some inherent "quality"…

We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the correlation properties of a stationary Markovian stochastic processes affect the First Passage Time distribution. First Passage Time issues are a classical topic in stochastic processes…