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We describe $k$-MLE, a fast and efficient local search algorithm for learning finite statistical mixtures of exponential families such as Gaussian mixture models. Mixture models are traditionally learned using the expectation-maximization…

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…

Singularly perturbed systems (SPSs) are prevalent in engineering applications, where numerically solving their initial value problems (IVPs) is challenging due to stiffness arising from multiple time scales. Classical explicit methods…

Mixtures-of-Experts models and their maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) via the EM algorithm have been thoroughly studied in the statistics and machine learning literature. They are subject of a growing investigation in the context of…

In a regular full exponential family, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) need not exist in the traditional sense. However, the MLE may exist in the completion of the exponential family. Existing algorithms for finding the MLE in the…

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the…

We develop a machine-learning framework to learn hyperparameter sequences for accelerated first-order methods (e.g., the step size and momentum sequences in accelerated gradient descent) to quickly solve parametric convex optimization…

We develop a quasi-likelihood analysis procedure for a general class of multivariate marked point processes. As a by-product of the general method, we establish under stability and ergodicity conditions the local asymptotic normality of the…

Stochastic processes are random variables with values in some space of paths. However, reducing a stochastic process to a path-valued random variable ignores its filtration, i.e. the flow of information carried by the process through time.…

Training state-of-the-art vision models has become prohibitively expensive for researchers and practitioners. For the sake of accessibility and resource reuse, it is important to focus on adapting these models to a variety of downstream…

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Moving horizon estimation (MHE) offers benefits relative to other estimation approaches by its ability to explicitly handle constraints, but suffers increased computation cost. To help enable MHE on platforms with limited computation power,…

We introduce the notion of continuous invertibility on a compact set for volatility models driven by a Stochastic Recurrence Equation (SRE). We prove the strong consistency of the Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) when the…

Despite their advantages, normalizing flows generally suffer from several shortcomings including their tendency to generate unrealistic data (e.g., images) and their failing to detect out-of-distribution data. One reason for these…

Sequence prediction models can be learned from example sequences with a variety of training algorithms. Maximum likelihood learning is simple and efficient, yet can suffer from compounding error at test time. Reinforcement learning such as…