相关论文: Fine-Grained $\epsilon$-Margin Closed-Form Stabili…

This paper proves the consistency property for the regularized maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs). It also develops an alternating minimization type algorithm (AA-iPALM) to compute the MLEs with…

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a non-stationary Hawkes process with time-dependent reproduction rate and baseline intensity. Our approach relies on the standard maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), coinciding with…

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

This work proposes a unifying probabilistic framework for the design of robustly asymptotically stable moving-horizon estimators (MHE) for discrete-time nonlinear systems, and a mechanism to incorporate differential privacy in…

Lagrangian particle tracking is essential for characterizing turbulent flows, but inferring particle acceleration from inherently noisy position data remains a significant challenge. Fluid particles in turbulence experience extreme,…

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of latent variable models is often recast as the minimization of a free energy functional over an extended space of parameters and probability distributions. This perspective was recently combined with…

In this paper, we design a nonparametric online algorithm for estimating the triggering functions of multivariate Hawkes processes. Unlike parametric estimation, where evolutionary dynamics can be exploited for fast computation of the…

It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…

We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target…

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…

We apply the techniques of stochastic integration with respect to fractional Brownian motion and the theory of regularity and supremum estimation for stochastic processes to study the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the drift…

Maximum likelihood estimation problems are, in general, intractable optimization problems. As a result, it is common to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) using convex relaxations. In some cases, the relaxation is tight: it…

A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…

This paper develops a unified estimation framework, the Maximum Ideal Likelihood Estimation (MILE), for general parametric models with latent variables. Unlike traditional approaches relying on the marginal likelihood of the observed data,…

In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of a univariate Hawkes process with self-excitation or inhibition. Our work generalizes techniques and results that were restricted to the self-exciting…

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

We address the challenge of performing Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) after an initial Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) fit. Existing approaches that utilize the data-adaptive working model selected by HAL-such as the relaxed HAL…