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We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-07-31 Gustav Eje Henter , Arne Leijon , W. Bastiaan Kleijn

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

The inherent bias pathology of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is confirmed for models with unknown parameters $\theta$ and $\psi$ when MLE $\hat \psi$ is function of MLE $\hat \theta.$ To reduce $\hat \psi$'s bias the…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-09-11 Yannis G. Yatracos

Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-18 Rui Zhuang , Johannes Lederer

This study focuses on the estimation of the Emax dose-response model, a widely utilized framework in clinical trials, agriculture, and environmental experiments. Existing challenges in obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-11 Giacomo Aletti , Nancy Flournoy , Caterina May , Chiara Tommasi

We study maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) in the generalized group orbit recovery model, where each observation is generated by applying a random group action and a known, fixed linear operator to an unknown signal, followed by additive…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-30 Sheng Xu , Anderson Ye Zhang , Amit Singer

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

MaLeS is an automatic tuning framework for automated theorem provers. It provides solutions for both the strategy finding as well as the strategy scheduling problem. This paper describes the tool and the methods used in it, and evaluates…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2014-06-03 Daniel Kühlwein , Josef Urban

Over the last decades, the family of $\alpha$-stale distributions has proven to be useful for modelling in telecommunication systems. Particularly, in the case of radar applications, finding a fast and accurate estimation for the amplitude…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-15 Mahdi Teimouri

Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a network model that arbitrarily initializes the first hidden layer and can be computed speedily. In order to improve the classification performance of ELM, a $\ell_2$ and $\ell_{0.5}$ regularization ELM…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-01-05 Liangjuan Zhou , Wei Miao

Current Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) methods used to analyze time-to-event data estimate the survival probability for each time point separately, which result in estimates that are not necessarily monotone. In this paper,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-14 Weixin Cai , Mark J. van der Laan

We consider the problem of retraining machine learning (ML) models when new batches of data become available. Existing approaches greedily optimize for predictive power independently at each batch, without considering the stability of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-05 Dimitris Bertsimas , Vassilis Digalakis , Yu Ma , Phevos Paschalidis

In this paper, we consider distributed maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with dependent quantized data under the assumption that the structure of the joint probability density function (pdf) is known, but it contains unknown deterministic…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2013-09-17 Xiaojing Shen , Pramod K. Varshney , Yunmin Zhu

Accelerated algorithms for maximum likelihood image reconstruction are essential for emerging applications such as 3D tomography, dynamic tomographic imaging, and other high dimensional inverse problems. In this paper, we introduce and…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-01-31 Stéphane Chrétien , Alfred O. Hero

An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-03-20 Frederic Paik Schoenberg

Linear Mixed-Effects (LME) models are a fundamental tool for modeling correlated data, including cohort studies, longitudinal data analysis, and meta-analysis. Design and analysis of variable selection methods for LMEs is more difficult…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-17 Aleksei Sholokhov , James V. Burke , Damian F. Santomauro , Peng Zheng , Aleksandr Aravkin

With some regularity conditions maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) always produce asymptotically optimal (in the sense of consistency, efficiency, sufficiency, and unbiasedness) estimators. But in general, the MLEs lead to non-robust…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-22 Chudamani Poudyal

We study maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models under conditional Poisson sampling schemes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters and…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-07-24 Stephen E. Fienberg , Alessandro Rinaldo

We import the algebro-geometric notion of a complete collineation into the study of maximum likelihood estimation in directed Gaussian graphical models. A complete collineation produces a perturbation of sample data, which we call a…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-11-07 Gergely Bérczi , Eloise Hamilton , Philipp Reichenbach , Anna Seigal

Enhancing generalization and uncertainty quantification in pre-trained language models (PLMs) is crucial for their effectiveness and reliability. Building on machine learning research that established the importance of robustness for…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-04-02 Josip Jukić , Jan Šnajder