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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus two (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, represents an unprecedented global health challenge. Consequently, a large amount of research into…

We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears…

The increasing spread of COVID-19, caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, raises concerns about the extent to which mutations have occurred across the viral genome. We present a partial replication of an earlier 2021 study by Wang, R. et al. that…

Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or Covid-19, burst into a pandemic in the beginning of 2020. An unprecedented worldwide effort involving academic institutions, regulatory agencies and industry is facing…

Recurrent waves which are often observed during long pandemics typically form as a result of several interrelated dynamics including public health interventions, population mobility and behaviour, varying disease transmissibility due to…

Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…

Currently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic the public life in most European countries stopped almost completely due to measures against the spread of the virus. Efforts to limit the number of new infections are threatened by the advent of new…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…

The emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is a major concern given their potential impact on the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus as well as the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. Here, we predict the mutability of all…

Currently, the world seeks to find appropriate mitigation techniques to control and prevent the spread of the new SARS-CoV-2. In our paper herein, we present a peculiar Multi-Task Learning framework that jointly predicts the effect of…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced the challenge of managing population behavior to prevent their healthcare systems from collapsing. Sweden adopted a strategy centered on voluntary sanitary recommendations while Belgium…

Classically, endemic infectious diseases are expected to display relatively stable, predictable infection dynamics. Accordingly, basic disease models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model display stable endemic states…

Pathogens drive changes in host immune systems that in turn exert pressure for pathogens to evolve. Quantifying and understanding this constant coevolutionary process has clear practical global health implications. Yet its relatively easier…

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread rapidly worldwide, leading to a global outbreak. Most governments, enterprises, and scientific research institutions are participating in the COVID-19 struggle to curb the…

Within the context that Greece promises a success story in the fight against the disease, this paper proposes a novel method to study the evolution of the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve in relation to the anti-COVID-19 policies applied to…

COVID-19 is an infection caused by SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2), which has caused a global outbreak. Current research efforts are focused on the understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in…