相关论文: Number of Sign Changes: Segment of AR(1)
Let $X_{t}$ denote a stationary first-order autoregressive process. Consider five contiguous observations (in time $t$) of the series (e.g., $X_{1}, ..., X_{5}$). Let $M$ denote the maximum of these. Let $\rho$ be the lag-one serial…
Given a stationary first-order autoregressive process X_t (with lag-one correlation rho satisfying |rho|<1), we examine the Central Limit Theorem for (1/n)*ln |X_1...X_n| and compute variances to high precision. Given a nonstationary…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…
A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…
Let $\pi_n$ be a uniformly chosen random permutation on $[n]$. The authors of [2] showed that the expected number of distinct consecutive patterns of all lengths $k\in\{1,2,\ldots,n\}$ in $\pi_n$ was $\frac{n^2}{2}(1-o(1))$ as $n\to\infty$,…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…
Estimating the periodicity of a stationary time series via fitting a second order stationary autoregressive (AR(2)) model has been initiated by the seminal paper of Yule(1927).. We investigate properties of this procedure when applied to a…
In applications spaning from image analysis and speech recognition, to energy dissipation in turbulence and time-to failure of fatigued materials, researchers and engineers want to calculate how often a stochastic observable crosses a…
We investigate precursors and predictability of extreme increments in a time series. The events we are focusing on consist in large increments within successive time steps. We are especially interested in understanding how the quality of…
We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…
The accurate estimation of scaling exponents is central in the observational study of scale-invariant phenomena. Natural systems unavoidably provide observations over restricted intervals; consequently a stationary stochastic process (time…
In this article, we introduce and study a one sided tempered stable first order autoregressive model called TAR(1). Under the assumption of stationarity of the model, the marginal probability density function of the error term is found. It…
Let $\pi_n$ be a uniformly chosen random permutation on $[n]$. Using an analysis of the probability that two overlapping consecutive $k$-permutations are order isomorphic, the authors of a recent paper showed that the expected number of…
The first-order binomial autoregressive (BAR(1)) model is the most frequently used tool to analyze the bounded count time series. The BAR(1) model is stationary and assumes process parameters to remain constant throughout the time period,…
We consider $N$ counters taking integer values which are subject to the following dynamics. At every time, a pair of distinct counters is chosen uniformly at random and their states are updated according to the following rule. If the states…
We consider an autoregressive model on $\mathbb{R}$ defined by the recurrence equation $X_n=A_nX_{n-1}+B_n$, where $\{(B_n,A_n)\}$ are i.i.d. random variables valued in $\mathbb{R}\times\mathbb{R}^+$ and $\mathbb {E}[\log A_1]=0$ (critical…
N-of-1 experiments, where a unit serves as its own control and treatment in different time windows, have been used in certain medical contexts for decades. However, due to effects that accumulate over long time windows and interventions…
A random graph order is a partial order achieved by independently sprinkling relations on a vertex set (each with probability $p$) and adding relations to satisfy the requirement of transitivity. A \textit{post} is an element in a partially…
Previous comparisons of ordinary least squares with Newey-West standard errors (OLS-NW) and Prais-Winsten (PW) regression in multiple-group interrupted time series analysis have been limited to first-order autoregressive (AR[1]) errors…