相关论文: Number of Sign Changes: Segment of AR(1)
We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…
A general asymptotic theory is given for the panel data AR(1) model with time series independent in different cross sections. The theory covers the cases of stationary process, nearly non-stationary process, unit root process, mildly…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
The class of autoregressive (AR) processes is extensively used to model temporal dependence in observed time series. Such models are easily available and routinely fitted using freely available statistical software like R. A potential…
The first-order moving average model or MA(1) is given by $X_t=Z_t-\theta_0Z_{t-1}$, with independent and identically distributed $\{Z_t\}$. This is arguably the simplest time series model that one can write down. The MA(1) with unit root…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
This paper discusses change detection in SAR time-series. Firstly, several statistical properties of the coefficient of variation highlight its pertinence for change detection. Then several criteria are proposed. The coefficient of…
It was recently proved that any strictly stationary stochastic process can be viewed as an autoregressive process of order one with coloured noise. Furthermore, it was proved that, using this characterisation, one can define closed form…
We consider a class of statistical estimation problems in which we are given a random data matrix ${\boldsymbol X}\in {\mathbb R}^{n\times d}$ (and possibly some labels ${\boldsymbol y}\in{\mathbb R}^n$) and would like to estimate a…
Let $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ be a stationary real-valued time series with unknown distribution. Our goal is to estimate the conditional expectation of $X_{n+1}$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ in a strongly consistent way.…
It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…
The volatility modeling for autoregressive univariate time series is considered. A benchmark approach is the stationary ARCH model of Engle (1982). Motivated by real data evidence, processes with non constant unconditional variance and ARCH…
Change point detection plays a fundamental role in many real-world applications, where the goal is to analyze and monitor the behaviour of a data stream. In this paper, we study change detection in binary streams. To this end, we use a…
When analysing time series an important issue is to decide whether the time series is stationary or a random walk. Relaxing these notions, we consider the problem to decide in favor of the I(0)- or I(1)-property. Fixed-sample statistical…
We study analytically the statistics of multiple sign changes in a discrete non-Markovian sequence ,\psi_i=\phi_i+\phi_{i-1} (i=1,2....,n) where \phi_i's are independent and identically distributed random variables each drawn from a…
We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…
Beginning with work of Zeilberger on classical pattern counts, there are a variety of structural results for moments of permutation statistics applied to random permutations. Using tools from representation theory, Gaetz and Ryba…
We consider an estimator for the location of a shift in the mean of long-range dependent sequences. The estimation is based on the two-sample Wilcoxon statistic. Consistency and the rate of convergence for the estimated change point are…
Mills, Robbins, and Rumsey conjectured, and Zeilberger proved, that the number of alternating sign matrices of order $n$ equals $A(n):={{1!4!7! ... (3n-2)!} \over {n!(n+1)! ... (2n-1)!}}$. Mills, Robbins, and Rumsey also made the stronger…
In recent papers we have studied refined enumerations of alternating sign matrices with respect to a fixed set of top and bottom rows. The present paper is a first step towards extending these considerations to alternating sign matrices…