相关论文: The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, in structure…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
We develop a new methodology for the efficient computation of epidemic final size distributions for a broad class of Markovian models. We exploit a particular representation of the stochastic epidemic process to derive a method which is…
We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and establish the final size relation. It…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
Networks have become an important tool for infectious disease epidemiology. Most previous theoretical studies of transmission network models have either considered simple Markovian dynamics at the individual level, or have focused on the…
Identifying the main environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the population is crucial for understanding current and potential future outbursts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. To address this problem, we…
A system of partial differential equations is derived as a model for the dynamics of a honey bee colony with a continuous age distribution, and the system is then extended to include the effects of a simplified infectious disease. In the…
We analyse the infection-age-dependent SIR model from a numerical point of view. First, we present an algorithm for calculating the solution the infection-age-structured SIR model without demography of the background host. Second, we…
We investigate the global dynamics of a general Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic model formulated in terms of a system of renewal equations. Specifically, we consider a renewal model for which both the force of infection and the infected…
In this article, we introduce an infinite-dimensional deterministic SIS model which takes into account the heterogeneity of the infections and the social network among a large population. We study the long-time behavior of the dynamic. We…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
This work introduces a new markovian stochastic model that can be described as a non-homogeneous Pure Birth process. We propose a functional form of birth rate that depends on the number of individuals in the population and on the elapsed…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
In this paper, we propose and analyze a reaction-diffusion susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic patch model. The individuals are assumed to reside in different patches, where they are able to move inside and among the patches.…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used in mathematical epidemiology assume explicitly or implicitly large populations. For the study of infections in a hospital this is an extremely restrictive assumption as typically a hospital…
Infection can spread easily on networks with heterogeneous degree distribution. Here, we considered targeted immunization on such networks, wherein a fraction of individuals with the highest connectivity are immunized. To quantify the…
This article is concerned with a nonlocal dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with Neumann boundary condition, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous and…